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Stock Market Outlook For Mon Jun 26 2023 – Bounce Likely But Down Signal Near

Jun 26, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook - Bounce Likely

Day’s Summary

Friday saw more selling on heavier volume.

By the close of the day the S&P was down 33 points to end the day at 4348. For the week the S&P lost 61 points.

The NASDAQ fell 138 points to at 13,492.  For the week it lost 197 points

Selling at times was fairly brisk but the index is not oversold enough for a major bounce, but should see a bit of a bounce to start the week off.

Let’s review the SPX closing technical indicators from Fri Jun 23 2023 to see what to expect for Mon Jun 26 2023.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jun 23 2023

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band which is now bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish but points to a potential bounce for the start of Monday.

The 21, 50 an 100 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish, but the 200 day is slipping lower while the the Lower Bollinger Band is rising. This is bearish.

The S&P chart is reasonably bullish but there are further signs of weakness in the chart.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jun 23 2023


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Friday May 26. The up signal was almost gone on Friday and ready to issue a down signal.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is no longer overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. At this stage it is normally signaling a bounce attempt coming.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4450 is resistance
4435 is resistance
4420 is resistance
4400 is strong resistance
4390 is resistance
4370 is resistance
4350 is resistance
4340 is resistance
4325 is resistance
4310 is resistance
4300 is resistance
4290 is resistance
4275 is support
4250 is support
4240 is support
4225 is support
4210 is support
4200 is good support
4190 is support
4180 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jun 26 2023 

For Monday the technical indicators have all lost strength and the important MACD indicator is ready to issue a major down signal.

The Rate Of Change is signaling a strong chance of a bounce on Monday before more selling. The bounce could last just part of the morning.

All the technical indicators are showing signs of stress and advising caution. Often this many indicators signaling lower is followed by a bounce before more selling erupts.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No events







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