Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jun 24 2024 – Potential Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Friday was triple witching with options expiring and volumes spiking higher on both New York and the NASDAQ.

The S&P saw 7.2 billion shares traded while the NASDAQ had 9.2 billion shares change hands.

Both indexes moved slightly lower with the S&P down 8 points to 5464 and the NASDAQ down 32.

The S&P was still up for the week adding in another 33 points which the NASDAQ was virtually flat, ahead by just 0.47.

As we enter the final week of June, many analysts are calling for a pullback as NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) slipped again on Friday. Analysts pointed to the selling as a signal the market may have topped for now. Personally I can see a bit of weakness but  I see no sign yet of a actual correction. Analysts have called for a correction for weeks. At some point they will be right but I prefer to look at the technical signals each day at the close. To that end let’s review Fri Jun 21 to see what the start of the final week of June may look like.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jun 21 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish but with cautionary signals.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday and indicates stocks could attempt a bounce but will close lower again.

The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4919 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5143.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger Band is rising. This is bullish but note that the Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways on Friday which needs to be watched for any change in the trend.

The S&P chart is bullish for Monday. It is signaling a good chance for a bounce which will be followed by a lower close.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jun 21 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jun 24 2024 

For Monday the SPX should see an attempt to bounce higher but the outlook is still lower into the close.

Once NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) stops falling, stocks will recover their move higher. That though seems unlikely by the close on Monday.

For the final week of June, there are a number of economci events that will impact stocks. These include Durable Goods on Thursday and PCE numbers on Friday. The PCE numbers are the more important reports and could push stocks higher or lower, depending on their numbers.

There are also some big cap stocks reporting earnings this week which could impact stocks. These include Carnival Corp (CCL), FedEx (FDX), General Mills (GIS), Paychex (PAYX), Micron Technology (MU), Levi Straus (LEVI) , Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), McCormick & Co (MKC) and Nike (NKE). The final week of June promises to be exciting, busy and probably volatile. This will be a very profitable week for my portfolios.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The biggest economic events this week are Durable Goods on Thursday and PCE numbers on Friday.

Monday:

No economic reports but 3 Fed officials are speaking today.