Friday saw the morning open strongly and then push to a new intraday high of 2964.15 just 35 points from 3000.
Sellers though took over mid-morning and the index never recovered that high. The close saw the index attempting to push higher as it reached 2957 only to see more than a billion sell orders hit the market in the final 15 minutes of trading. This sent the index lower to close at 2950.46, down just 3.72 points for the day.
It was an incredible week and marked the best June in 22 years.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Jun 21 2019
The index set a new all-time high Friday morning and then closed just below Thursday’s new high. The closing candlestick was bearish for the start of the new week on Monday.
The upper Bollinger Band and the Lower Bollinger Band are both moving away from each other. This normally indicates a larger move higher should be expected.
There is still one sell signal in play but the 21 day is still turning higher and should it move above the 50 day, which looks likely for this week, it will negate that sell signal.
Aside from the one sell signal, the chart is very bullish with the major moving averages climbing higher. The 200 day is nearing the 2800 level. A move above it will be bullish for the rally.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jun 21 2019
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive and falling indicating weakness for Monday.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday June 6. The up signal was stronger on Friday.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and falling, indicating weakness for Monday.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal has an up signal in place. The technical indicator is showing the market as extremely overbought and the up signal is weak.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and is extremely overbought.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is turning sideways which indicates we could see shallow prices over the next couple of trading days.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
2950 is resistance
2900 is light support
2860 is better support
2830 is light support
2800 is strong support
2795 is light support
2745 to 2750 is light support
2725 is light support
2700 is light support
2675 is light support
2650 is support
2625 is light support
2600 is support.
There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.
The 2500 level is support.
The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.
There is good support at 2425.
Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Jun 24 2019
For Monday there are signals that the rally may be running on empty as more indicators turned in overbought signals and are pointing lower for the indexes.
The Moving Average Convergence / Divergence signal is still quite strong which would indicate that any weakness we see on Monday or Tuesday is not a concern as the overall market is still pointing to new all-time highs shortly.
For Monday, markets are very overbought. I am expecting some weakness Monday morning but then new highs as the week continues.
Two issues face the markets this week. The first is the unemployment report due out on Friday. The second is the meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Either of these could end up being the market moving event for this week.
At present then Monday looks like it will close slightly lower although intraday we could see the market try once more to make another new all-time high.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
