Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Fri Jun 20 2025 stocks were under some selling pressure as investors remained concerned over any US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict. The SPX fell 13 points to close at 5967. For the week the index lost just 9 points but it marked two weeks in a row of slight losses.
The NASDAQ fell 98 points to close at 19447. For the week the index was up 40 points.
Friday was triple witching which usually results in higher than usual volumes. The SPX traded 7.6 billion shares with 48% of all stocks rising. The NASDAQ traded 10.3 billion shares with 41% of all stocks rising.
With the surprise bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites by the USA on Saturday, Monday should open lower.
Lets review the SPX technical indicators from the close on Fri Jun 20 2025 to see what we should expect for Mon Jun 23 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jun 20 2025
The index closed lower at the 21 day moving average. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday and is signaling a strong possibility of falling below the 21 day moving average.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5952 which is bullish but the rally of the 21 day is almost over as of Friday’s close.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5736 which is bullish. The 50 day is above the 200 day moving average for a 4th up signal. This wiped out the 2nd down signal from March. Only one day signal remains from March 7.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5792 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5712 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day and moving sideways which is neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising within the Bollinger Bands Squeeze which is bullish.
For Fri Jun 20 2025 the SPX chart is more bearish than bullish with the closing candlestick indicating a lower close is expected for Monday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jun 20 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising slightly and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri May 30. The down signal was stronger at the close on Fri Jun 20 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is trending sideways which is neutral for Monday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jun 23 2025
The technical indicators are all pointing lower for Monday. The MACD signal down, is continuing to gain strength.
On Monday investors have to deal with the fallout from the bombing of Iran. Oil prices may rise if Iran moves ahead with blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
We also get the latest readings from the services PMI and manufacturing PMI which is expected to show a slowing economy.
Overall the index is positioned to end the day lower.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI is estimated to slip to 53.0 from 53.7 prior
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI is estimated to slip to 51.5 from 52.0 prior
10:00 Existing home sales for May are estimated to fall to 3.95 million from 4.0 million