Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 8 2024 – Overbought But Unconfirmed Up Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Friday the June Non-Farm Payroll came in at 206,000, well below last month’s 218,000 but slightly above estimates of 200,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0%. May and April’s employment report was slashed by 111,000 jobs which indicated employment growth has been less than originally thought. Investors were cheered by the lower numbers and rising unemployment rate as once again they believe the numbers support the Fed being able to cut interest rates sooner, rather than later. Comments from the Fed however seemed to still indicate that they were not ready to cut rates over the next several months. However there is a growing opinion the Fed will cut rates before the election to support the incumbent president.

Friday ended with the SPX up 30 points to end the day at 5567, another new high. For the week the SPX added 106 points, the bet week since the fourth week of April.

The NASDAQ ended the day up 164 points to 18352, another new high. For the week the NASDAQ rose 620 points, also the best week since the fourth week of April.

Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Fri July 5 2024 to see what to expect on Mon Jul 8 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri July 5 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger Band, at a new high.

The closing candlestick indicates stocks are overbought and could dip on Monday to start the second week of July.

The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4969 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5201.

The Lower Bollinger Band moved higher above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which is also bullish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri July 5 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 8 2024 

On Friday at the close the MACD technical indicators issued another up signal. The signal is unconfirmed, but a higher day on Monday will confirm it.

Starting the day on Monday the SPX is overbought. The rally higher has been narrow will many stocks not participating. Despite this the index is overbought and due for a few dips.

The close on Monday however should see the index flat to higher despite expected dips.

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Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The biggest economic events this week are Fed Chair Powell’s House testimony on Wednesday, CPI numbers on Thursday and PPI numbers of Friday.

Monday:

3:00 Consumer credit is expected to come in at $8 billion, up from $6.4 billion prior.