Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thursday July 3 the June employment report surprised analysts once again as predictions of low employment numbers were easily beaten. 147,000 new jobs were created, easily beating estimates that ranges from 90,000 to 110,000. Analysts are continuing to predict a slow down and recession in the second half but so far they have been wrong.
On Thursday the S&P closed up 51 points to another new high of 6279. For the week, the index rose 106 points. Volume was low at 3.4 billion shares heading into the long Independence Day holiday weekend but still, 71% of all volume was being traded higher and 67% of stocks were rising.
The NASDAQ had 6.3 billion shares traded with 75% of that volume traded higher. The index ended the day up 208 points to 20,601. For the week, the NASDAQ rose 327 points.
With the employment report out-of-the-way let’s review the technical indicators at the close before the long weekend to see what is predicted for the start of the second week of July.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thur Jul 3 2025
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6066 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5887 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5853 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5750 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
The SPX chart is very bullish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jul 3 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu June 26. On Thu Jul 3 2025 the up signal was stronger.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Monday will end higher. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is resistance |
| 6150 is resistance |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is resistance |
| 6075 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is support |
| 5975 is support |
| 5950 is support |
| 5925 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 7 2025
The June non-farm payroll numbers were much higher than estimated. Stocks rallied on the strength of that report. The rally from Friday may dip in the morning but the close will be higher today.
The technical indicators are all positive. There are no signals advising that stocks are overbought and ready for a break. Instead, the outlook remains still higher for stocks after a brief dip early in the day.
There are no economic reports on Monday which almost always favors the bulls.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
no events are scheduled