Day’s Summary
Monday is a half day ahead of Tuesday’s July 4 holiday. With many investors gone for the long weekend, Monday’s volume will be low. Low volumes can result in larger swings in the index. On Monday I am expecting a higher close by the close at 1:00 PM.
Friday saw a strong rally that continues to widen as it drags more stocks into the rally. The SPX closed up 54 points to 4450 which is a strong resistance level.
The NASDAQ closed up 196 points to end the day at 13787.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Friday to see what the half day Monday looks like.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jun 30 2023
June defied the bears and most analysts with a strong month and a very strong final day, breaking through 4400 and closing half way to 4500.
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish. It also is often followed by some weakness to start the day but with Monday being a half day, we could see the index dip early and then push higher into the close t 1:00 PM.
The closing candlestick is bullish for the start of July.
The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The Lower Bollinger Band pushed above the 50 day moving average on Friday, setting the Bollinger Bands Squeeze in place to start July. The SPX is very bullish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jun 30 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and only slightly positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Monday June 26 . The down signal was almost gone on Friday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising, positive and signaling overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4500 is strong resistance |
| 4475 is resistance |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is strong resistance |
| 4390 is resistance |
| 4370 is resistance |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 3 2023
For Monday the technical indicators are all pointing higher except for the MACD indicator, but even it is almost ready to issue an up signal on Monday.
For a half day, Monday we could see some weakness at the open or near the open but then a push higher into the final hour of trading.
Volumes will be very low but often that can lead to bigger moves intraday.
The signals are strongly bullish heading into July and a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze is starting this week. With the June non-farm payroll out on Friday, we could see stocks continue their advance this week.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The biggest event this week is the June non-farm payroll numbers due out on Friday at 8:30. I will be putting together a trade on Thursday ahead of June’s payroll numbers.
Monday:
9:45 S&P Flash manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 46.3
10:00 ISM Manufacturing is expected to rise slightly to 47.3%
10:00 Construction spending is expected to dip to 0.5%