Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 29 2019 – Still Higher

On Friday July 26, investors were enthused by stronger than expected earnings from a number of big names on Friday including Alphabet and Starbucks, to mention just two. Investors pushed the indexes to new all-time highs. The S&P ended the day at 3025, the Dow at 27192 and the NASDAQ at 8330. Only the Dow has not retaken its old high of 27398.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Friday Jul 26 2019

The SPX chart is bullish to start the final week of July and there are signs of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze possibly forming later this week.

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and left behind a bullish candlestick for Monday.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising quickly while the Upper Bollinger Band is trending sideways. There is a good chance we could see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze form up.

The 50 day moving average is now above the 2900 level and the 100 day is not far behind. The 200 day is approaching 2850.

All the major moving averages are moving higher.

Stock Market Outlook review of Jul 26 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive but unchanged despite the move higher on Friday.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday July 18. The down signal was much weaker on Friday at negative 1.37.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal has a strong up signal in place and is entering overbought signals.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is better support

2830 is light support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Jul 29 2019 

While the signals are mixed to start off the final week of July, there are far more positive signals than negative ones. Of the technical indicators in use only the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence continues to provide us with a sell signal.

All the other indicators are rising and the Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place along with an overbought signal, which always indicates strength to the upside.

With the S&P at another new all-time high there will be some dips on Monday but when they happen, they are opportunities to setup more trades. The outlook is still higher for the start of the week.

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