Day’s Summary
Fri Jul 21 saw stocks struggle to stay positive with a number of dips intraday and a flat close.
The SPX closed up just a point to 4536. The NASDAQ fell 30 points to end the day at 14032.
Friday was triple witching which should have seen high volumes on the indexes. Instead New York traded just 3.7 billion shares and the NASDAQ 5.4 billion. Back in 2021 before interest rates were rising, triple witching in June saw 7.2 billion shares traded on New York and 6.4 billion traded on the NASDAQ. The numbers on Friday were way below average and shows that a lot of investors are still not in stocks. This also signals there is more room to the upside by drawing in a lot more investors who are still sitting on the sidelines.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Friday to see if the rally will recommence for the final week of July. This is a big week for earnings announcements from some of the largest large cap stocks. It is also the next interest rate decision by the Fed on Wednesday.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jul 21 2023
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and all moving averages which is still bullish.
The closing candlestick on Friday is bullish but continues signaling stocks are overbought.
The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning back up but still below the 50 day moving average. This is however bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is also bullish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jul 21 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday Jul 13. The up signal was weaker on Friday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged and still overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is resistance |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is strong resistance |
| 4390 is support |
| 4370 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 24 2023
For Monday the technical indicators are advising that the market is still overbought but bullish. The SPX chart is also far more bullish than bearish.
This is a big week for stocks with earnings due out from many large cap stocks and the latest interest rate decision by the Fed expected on Wednesday at 2:00 PM. That decision is still biased for another quarter point increase.
For Monday, watch for dips and periods of weakness but signals are advising that the market will end higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P Flash manufacturing PMI and services PMI