Friday’s strong showing for stocks means there will be some selling Monday. A dip down to 3850 or 3840 would be easy for the SPX to witness but despite what should be a choppy day, there was strength in the last three trading days last week as each morning dip on Wednesday and Thursday found buyers pushing back against sellers.
On Friday the S&P closed up 72 points to 3863 while the NASDAQ closed up 201 points at 11,452.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Friday to see what to expect for the start of the third week of July.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Jul 15 2022
On Friday there are a number of key events. The closing candlestick is bullish and closed above the 21 day moving average.
The 21 day moving average is turning up and trying to climb.
The Upper Bollinger Band is turning up and is above the 50 day moving average which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is still in play but it may turn the index higher.
All the moving averages are falling except the 21 day.
There are 4 down signals still in place and there have been no up signals since the start of April.
The chart remains more hopeful for the bulls for the start of the week.
The chart is probably 30% bullish for Monday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jul 15 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday June 27. On Friday the up signal strengthened and the histogram is improving.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place to start the week.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising sharply and positive.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4200 is light resistance
4150 is light resistance
4100 is light resistance
4050 is light resistance
4025 is light resistance
4000 is strong resistance
3975 is light resistance and is a decline of 17.5%
3900 is light resistance and is a decline of 19%
3850 is light resistance and is a decline of 20%
3825 is light resistance.
3800 is good support.
3775 is light support
3750 is light support
3730 is light support
3700 is good support
3675 is light support
3650 is light support
3625 is light support
3600 is good support and is a decline of 25%
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Jul 18 2022
A choppy day could be in-store for investors to start the week and there will be dips, perhaps as deep as 3850 or 3840.
However the outlook has improved and Monday should close the day higher in what may end up being a choppy session.
Potential Market Moving Events
This is a quieter week so the main focus will be on earnings.
Monday:
10:00 NAHB home builders index – This is expected to come in at 66 or 67. This should not make “waves” in the market.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
