Day’s Summary
Friday saw stocks start the day higher on the back of better than expected bank earnings but by the afternoon sellers had push the indexes lower for modest losses.
The S&P fell just 4 points on 3.7 billion shares traded. 81% of all volume however was to the downside which is bearish and shows investors wanted to take profits on Friday rather than hold over the weekend. The S&P closed at 4505.
The NASDAQ closed down 25 points to 14,113. Volume was higher at 5.4 billion shares but only 55% of the trading volume was to the downside.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Friday to see what we should expect for Monday’s market.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jul 14 2023
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band and all moving averages which is bullish.
However the closing candlestick on Friday points to a lower day on Monday to start the week.
The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The SPX is still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze but the Lower Bollinger Band is falling while the Upper Bollinger Band is rising. We may see the Bollinger Bands Squeeze ends this week.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jul 14 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an unconfirmed up signal on Thursday Jul 13. On Friday the up signal was confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and reaching into overbought readings.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling but still in overbought readings.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is resistance |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is strong resistance |
| 4390 is resistance |
| 4370 is resistance |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 17 2023
For Monday the technical indicators are slipping as more are indicating the next move will be lower for the S&P.
The MACD up signal was confirmed on Friday at the close. For the start of the week, the technical indicators are showing the index as overbought and ready to slip lower. A large move lower is not being signaled by the technical indicators, just weakness.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday
8:30 Empire state manufacturing survey