Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday investors got the latest Producer Price Index numbers which were slightly higher than estimated but the core PPI year-over-year was slightly lower and that was enough to send stocks higher.
By the close the S&P was up 30 points to close at 5613. The Dow Jones surged 247 points to close above 40,000. The NASDAQ rose 115 points to close at 18,398.
It was a strong day for stocks fresh on the downturn on Thursday. Many analysts had called Thursday’s downturn the start of a tech sell-off. Instead, Friday saw investors jump back into tech names that had been sold lower just a day before.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Fri Jul 12 2024 to see what to expect on Mon Jul 15 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jul 12 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger Band. Intraday the index was trading above the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The closing candlestick indicates the index was sold into toward the close which pushed the index off its intraday high. Often this signals dips should be expected on Monday but a higher close remains likely.
The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4999 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5239.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is climbing which is also bullish.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday although the closing candlestick on Friday is signaling dips should be expected.
SPX- Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jul 12 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Friday July 5. On Fri Jul 12 2024 the up signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is nearing negative readings.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling that Monday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5520 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5490 is resistance |
| 5475 is resistance |
| 5465 is resistance |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5310 is support |
| 5300 is support |
| 5275 is support |
| 5250 is light support |
| 5225 is light support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 15 2024
The third week of July will see the earnings season get underway. Goldman Sachs (GS) reports its latest quarterly earnings before the open. If the numbers beat estimates, the index will open higher. If they miss, watch for dips.
Monday starts with the Empire State manufacturing survey which is expected to be unchanged at -6.0. At noon, Fed Chair Powell speaks. Watch for volatility and choppy trading during his speech.
Meanwhile the aftermath of the assassination attempt of former President Trump will weigh on the market, certainly at the outset of the day. Meanwhile the technical indicators are bullish and the majority are pointing to a higher close on Monday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is estimated to be unchanged at -6.0
12:00 Fed Chair Powell speaks.