Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Fri Jul 11 2025 investors focus reverted to ongoing tariffs with Canada, the EU, Mexico and other countries. Markets were soft with lower closes but selling was muted.
The SPX fell 20 points to close at 6259. For the week the index lost 19 points.
The NASDAQ fell 45 points to close at 20585, but for the week, the index lost just 15 points.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Fri Jul 11 2025 to see what they predict for the start of the third week of July.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jul 11 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band for the 5th day but trending more sideways than down which his still bullish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday with two shadows which signals indecision.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6128 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5963 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5891 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5774 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising and still below the 50 day moving average but above the 100 day. This is neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into the start of the third week of July.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jul 11 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu June 26. On Fri Jul 11 2025 the up signal was almost gone.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling signaling further weakness.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling which signals a lower close on Monday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is resistance |
| 6150 is resistance |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is resistance |
| 6075 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is support |
| 5990 is support |
| 5975 is support |
| 5950 is support |
| 5925 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 14 2025
For the start of the third week of July the technical indicators are turning more negative and the MACD technical indicator has lost most of the prior up signal. We could see a down signal on Monday, if the SPX closes flat to lower.
Monday will see weakness and dips are likely. There is a high probability of a lower close unless there is progress on the tariff front.
This week we see the start of bank earnings on Tuesday which are estimated to be better than expected. Strong earnings could send the index to new highs this week even if Monday ends flat to lower.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
no events are scheduled