Day’s Summary
Friday saw stocks swing from positive to negative on the back of lower than expected job creation numbers. The SPX made a high of 4440 and a low of 4397. It closed near the low at 4399.
The SPX closed down 12 points to 4397 on moderate volume and the NASDAQ closed down 18 points to 13,660.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Friday to see what we should expect for Monday’s market.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jul 7 2023
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bearish and almost touched the 21 day moving average but is still above all major moving averages which is bullish.
The closing candlestick on Friday points to a possible bounce back on Monday. With earnings starting this week, it is difficult to predict if a bounce will happen at the start of the week.
The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The Lower Bollinger Band is rising and pushing still higher above the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. The SPX has entered a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze. At present the squeeze looks like it is signaling a lower move is coming although it is early in the squeeze to be certain of either direction.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jul 7 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday Jul 6. On Fri Jul 7 2023 the index confirmed the down signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply and negative.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is strong resistance |
| 4390 is resistance |
| 4370 is resistance |
| 4350 is resistance |
| 4340 is resistance |
| 4325 is resistance |
| 4310 is resistance |
| 4300 is resistance |
| 4290 is resistance |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
| 4190 is support |
| 4180 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 10 2023
On Friday the MACD technical indicator confirmed Thursday’s down signal. All technical indicators are signaling lower for Monday. Often when all the technical indicators are pointing lower, the market will attempt a bounce. However with earnings starting later this week and inflation report on Wednesday, we may not see much of a bounce for the start of the week.
Any bounce on Monday is suspect until later in the week. That means staying cautious for the start of the week.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Wholesale inventories
3:00 Consumer credit