Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Fri Jan 26 investors finally saw the 6 day rally pause as the SPX ended the day down 3 points to close at 4891. Intraday the index broke above 4900 for the third straight trading day. At 3.4 billion shares traded Friday was lowest volume day of the SPX since Dec 29.
The NASDAQ closed down 55 points to end the day at 15455. Trading volume was 4.6 billion shares. This is the lowest since Jan 10 when 4.5 billion shares were traded and since Nov 28 when 4.6 billion shares were also traded. Low volumes days have become more common when rallies start to falter throughout 2023.
For the week though the SPX added another 15 points while the NASDAQ added 18 points.
Let’s review Friday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect to start off the final week of January.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jan 26 2024
The index closed just below the Upper Bollinger Band for a bearish signal.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is near the 4800 valuation.
The closing candlestick is still bearish. The closing candlestick is signaling dips on Friday Monday with a limited potential of a higher close.
The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is above the 4400 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is ended with the Lower Bollinger Band below the 50 day moving average. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish.
The S&P chart is bullish for Monday although the closing candlestick indicates dips will occur on Monday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jan 26 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Jan 23 2024. On Fri Jan 26 2024 the up signal was slightly stronger.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is near overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has aa down signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. It is signaling a lower day is likely on Monday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4925 is resistance |
| 4915 is resistance |
| 4900 is resistance |
| 4875 is resistance |
| 4850 is resistance |
| 4825 is resistance |
| 4815 is resistance |
| 4800 is resistance |
| 4780 is resistance |
| 4750 is support |
| 4720 is support |
| 4700 is support |
| 4675 is support |
| 4650 is support |
| 4625 is support |
| 4600 is support |
| 4590 is support |
| 4575 is light support |
| 4565 is light support |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 29 2024
For Monday the technical indicators are continuing to shift lower with more lower readings.
This is a busy week for both big cap stocks reporting earnings and the Fed on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
The week promises to be volatile and Monday could start the action with many stocks reporting including Supermicro, Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Nucor (NUE), Whirlpool (WHR), Celestica (CLS), Sofi (SOFI) and many more.
For Monday watch for dips that could include a further decline in tech names following Intel’s collapse on Friday. The technical indicators are signaling a lower close to end Monday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
There are many events this week that could impact stocks, in particular the Fed on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. Monday is the only day with no reports. That could support the bulls.
Monday:
No reports are expected