Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 13 2025 – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Friday investors sold stocks lower following a stronger than anticipated December jobs report which showed over 100,000 more jobs created than estimated. Many investors looked at the jobs numbers as possibility inflationary and a reason for the Fed not to cut interest rates for probably the first half of the year.

The SPX fell back 91 points to close at 5827 still ahead of the close on Nov 5 of 5782, election day. Volume was 4.8 billion shares with 8 times more 52 week lows than highs. 79% of all stocks were falling on Friday. For the week the SPX lost 115 points and marked the 5th week out of 6 that have closed lower.

The NASDAQ closed down 317 points to 19,161 almost the same level the index was at on Nov 26.  Volume was 8.7 billion shares. There were 4.5 times new lows versus new highs on Friday but up volume was 46% versus 53% declining. For stocks though, 75% were lower. For the week, the NASDAQ lost 480 points, the second worse week since the second week of November when the NASDAQ lost 606 points and ended the week at 18,680.

If the SPX holds here, it will be another test of the mid-December lows which reached a low of 5832 before the SPX rebounded.

This is a full week of trading with a number of economic reports that could swing markets and the start of earnings season with many financial stocks and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reporting their latest quarterly results. This will be a big week for the markets.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Fri Jan 10 2025 to see what they can tell us about Mon Jan 13 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jan 10 2025

The index closed below both the 21 day and the 50 day moving averages and down at the 100 day moving average. This is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish but also signals that many stocks are oversold and a bounce is possible.

The 21 day moving average fell back to 5965 which is bearish. It may fall below the 50 day today which would be another down signal.

The 50 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5952 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5815 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5578 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band fell below the 100 day moving average and still falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.

The S&P chart is almost all bearish for Monday. We could see a bounce today or early in the week.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jan 10 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 13 2025 

For Monday the SPX may slip below the 100 day moving average and then attempt a bounce. Not all the technical indicators are in agreement that a bounce is imminent for Monday but all are showing stocks are now under stress. That could mean a bounce, especially if stocks slip lower early morning. If the SPX holds around the present level on Monday, we could see some strength on Tuesday but investors are presently cautious and waiting for others to buy into stocks before committing much capital.

Tuesday we get the Producer Price Index numbers and on Wednesday the Consumer Price Index numbers. Then Thursday we get retail sales and Friday housing starts, building permits and industrial production and capacity utilization. All of these reports will be scrutinized by investors to get somme idea on the strength of the economy. Many investors are worried that a strong economy will push inflation higher and delay any further Fed rate cuts. With bond yields higher on Friday, investors are spooked.

Today could see a bounce but without much buy-in from more than just traders, the chance any bounce today will hold is slight. A lower close is still expected.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

2:00 Monthly US Federal budget is expected to rise to -$75 billion from -$129 billion