Stock Market Outlook for Mon Feb 4 2019 – Weakness But Higher Close

Thursday saw the S&P move above the 2700 level reaching the highest point since the start of December. January ended today with a solid finish.

The S&P rose 7.8% in January almost recovering all the 9% loss of December 2018.

By the close, the S&P chart and technicals, as you will see below, ended January with impressive signals.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Feb 1 2019

The S&P is still bearish with 6 sell signals, but we now have one up signal and on Friday the S&P closed above the 200 day moving average for a second day.

The closing candlestick on Friday was bullish for Monday.

The Lower Bollinger Band and the Upper Bollinger Band are turning higher indicating there is more upside ahead for the S&P.

The 21 day moving average is above the 50 day moving average for a second day. (This is the first up signal)

Stock Market Outlook review of Feb 1 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and was falling on Friday.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 4 2019. That up signal was strong again on Friday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal was falling on Friday.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for Monday is still overbought.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal turned sideways by the close which indicates we are probably going to see some further selling pressure with the index above 2700.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2900 was support – this will be strong resistance

2860 was support – this will be resistance

2830 was light support and will be light resistance

2800 is strong resistance

2795 is light resistance

2745 to 2750 is light resistance

2725 is light resistance

2700 is resistance

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a full bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Feb 4 2019 

For Monday we will see dips back below 2700 but by the close the index will be higher. 2700 was a significant level back in 2018 and it will take some time to eventually break through and move consistently higher. Therefore we should see some trading around 2700 for much of the start of this week. Eventually though 2700 will become support again. For Monday the S&P should reach 2715 as a high.

Overall then, we will see weakness on Monday but a higher close to the day.

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