On Friday the SPX dipped lower on slowing volume but then managed a bounce to close slightly positive on the day. Volume was low at just 3.9 billion shares traded but 54% of the volume was to the upside. 46% of all stocks were rising as investors continue to hold onto the belief the Fed could make the “soft landing” possible later this year.
The NASDAQ did not fare as well. Volume was good at 5 billion shares traded and 60% of the volume was to the downside even with the afternoon rally attempt. 51% of all stocks were declining and new 52 week lows rose the most since Jan 6 with 82 new lows. The index lost 71 points and for the week it was down 288 points. This was the worst week for losses since the second week of December.
The upcoming week will begin to see a winding down of earnings reports but on Tuesday, Valentine’s Day, investors get the latest Consumer Price Index reports. Those could send stocks sharply higher or lower. Then on Wednesday retail sales reports are due along with the Empire State manufacturing Index and Industrial production index. All of these will give a good idea of the state of the economy and consumers. Needless to say this week will be volatile.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from the SPX on Fri Feb 10 to see what to expect for Mon Feb 13.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Feb 10 2023
On Fri Feb 10 the index closed below 4100 again. The closing candlestick is below the Upper Bollinger Band but still above the 200 day moving average which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday and points to a potential for a bounce.
The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is neutral. The Lower Bollinger Band is also turning sideways. This is neutral.
The 200 day moving average is flat which is bearish. All the remaining major averages are still rising although the 21 day is starting to turn sideways but is still above the 200 day moving average.
At present there are 2 down signals in place since April 24 and 4 up signals since Jan 13.
The chart is 70% bullish for Monday with a good chance to attempt a bounce ahead of Tuesday’s CPI numbers.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Feb 10 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and still clinging to positive signals.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday Jan 9. The up signal is almost wiped out as of Friday’s close but note how it is still just slightly positive. While certainly not bullish it does show there remains some strength.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is turned back up and is slightly positive.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is no longer overbought.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising but still negative.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling but positive.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4250 is resistance
4220 is resistance
4200 is resistance
4180 is resistance
4150 is resistance
4125 is resistance
4100 is resistance
4090 is resistance
4075 is light support
4050 is support
4030 is light support
4025 is light support
4000 is light support
3975 is light support
3965 is light support
3950 is good support
3930 is light support
3900 is good support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Feb 13 2023
For Monday the SPX is starting the day right at resistance at 4090. There is a lot of weakness as investors are worried about the CPI number on Tuesday. There are still signals that advise we could get a bounce, even a small one on Monday ahead of Tuesday’s release of the latest CPI numbers.
On Tuesday if the CPI numbers show a cooling of inflation, even a small one, expect stocks to bounce. If it shows an increase in inflation, expect stocks to fall. If the number is more dramatic lower or higher for inflation, expect a sharper move higher or lower. As investors tend to be among the optimists, often we will see stocks climb ahead of the important CPI number. That means while there will be weakness on Monday which could be as low as 4070 or even 4050, there is still a good chance for a bounce and slightly positive close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
On Monday we get some inflation expectations from the NY Fed but the big show is on Tuesday and then Wednesday.
Monday:
11:00 NY Fed 1 year inflation expectations which were 5% previously
11:00 NY Fed 3 year inflation expectations which were 2.4% previously
Tuesday:
8:30 Consumer Price Index which is estimated to be 0.4%
8:30 Core CPI which is estimated to be 0.3%
8:30 CPI (year-over-year) is estimated to be 6.2% down from 6.5% prior – this is the number to watch on Tuesday
8:30 Core CPI (year-over-year) is estimated to be 5.4% down from 5.7% – this is also the number to watch on Tuesday
Wednesday:
8:30 January Retail Sales are estimated to be 1.7% up from -1.1% prior
8:30 January Retail Sales excluding motor vehicles are estimated to be 0.7% up from -1.1% prior
8:30 Empire State Manufacturing index for Feb is estimated at -19.2, up from -32.9 prior
9:15 Industrial production index is estimated to be 0.4% for Jan, up from -0.7% in Dec.
9:15 Capacity Utilization rate for Jan is estimated at 79%, up slightly from 78.8%
10:00 NAHB home builders index for Feb is estimated at 36, up from 35.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
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Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
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