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Stock Market Outlook for Mon Feb 12 2024 – Sideways With Slight Bias Up

Feb 12, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook - sideways slight bias upPrior Trading Day Summary:

On Friday stocks opened higher, dipped in the morning but continued to hold a bullish bias. By the afternoon the SPX was pushing to 5030 before finally closing at 5026 marking the first close above 5000 for the SPX and new all-time highs.

Volume dropped to 3.9 billion shares on Friday but new lows still declined further reaching just 20 new lows with 62% of all stocks still rising.

The NASDAQ gained 197 points and closed at 15990 just 17 points below the index’s 52 week high. Friday saw the highest level of trading volume since Jan 16 with 5.9 billion shares traded. 64% of all stocks were rising.

Let’s review Friday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for the start of the second week of February.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Feb 9 2024

The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday and signals the index is overbought.

The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is above the 4875 valuation.

The 50 day moving average is rising and nearing 4800 which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4500 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising as is the Upper Bollinger Band. At present this is bullish.

The S&P chart is bullish for Monday and overbought.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Feb 9 2024


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Jan 23 2024. On Fri Feb 9 2024 the up signal gained strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged signaling not much change is expected on Monday.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5050 is resistance
5025 is resistance
5010 is resistance
5000 is resistance
4990 is resistance
4975 is resistance
4950 is resistance
4925 is resistance
4915 is resistance
4900 is resistance
4875 is resistance
4850 is resistance
4825 is support
4815 is support
4800 is support
4780 is support
4750 is support
4720 is support
4700 is support
4675 is support
4650 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Mon Feb 12 2024 

The technical indicators are bullish for the start of the week with just the Rate Of Change not showing much strength to start the week.

On Monday there are no economic reports that will impact stocks but on Tuesday investors get the latest inflation numbers when the Consumer Price Index is reported.

Monday could see stocks trend more sideways and choppy while investors wait for the those numbers tomorrow. The outlook then is for a choppy but sideways move holding an up bias.

 


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Inflation on Tuesday with CPI reports and on Thursday a myriad of economic reports will have the most impact this week.

Monday:

No reports that will impact stocks






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