Prior Trading Day Summary:
Friday saw an unemployment report that continued to show job growth and more people looking for work, both of which are good signs for the economy.
The SPX ended the day up 15 points and for the week, up 58 points, almost as many points as the final week of November. The SPX closed at 6090.27 just 10 points from 6100 which would mark another milestone close.
Volume was lower at 4 billion shares traded and only 48% of all volume was trading higher. As well just 44% of stocks were climbing. The first week of December showed weakness across the broader market with many stocks struggling in an overbought market.
The NASDAQ rose 159 points closing at 19,859, another closing high. Volume was 6.9 billion shares and stronger than the SPX with 71% of all volume trading higher and 60% of all stocks rising. For the week the SPX added 641 points, more than the last two weeks of November combined.
UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH) weighed heavily on the Dow Jones on Friday collapsing 5% for a drop of $29 due to the shooting death of Brian Thompson, UnitedHealth CEO. I am expecting the stock to recover.
Let’s review the stock market technical indicators at the close on Fri Dec 6 2024 to see what to expect for the start of the second week of December.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Dec 6 2024
The index pushed to its highest level of the year on Friday which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has a small shadow which indicates very overbought and strong possibility of dips on Monday.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5990. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5873. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5734 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5482 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving above the the 50 day which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Bandturning back up which is also bullish. We could still see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week.
The S&P chart is bullish for Monday but signaling overbought with probable dips intraday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Dec 6 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday Nov 25 2024. The up signal was a bit weaker on Friday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal and is very overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and is extremely overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling sharply and is signaling a lower day on Monday is expected.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is light support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5825 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5790 is support |
| 5775 is support |
| 5765 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 9 2024
The technical indicators are signaling very overbought and most are turning down or lower. Monday still looks steaady but a lower close could occur. If not on Monday then most probably Tuesday. Stocks need to take a breather and build further strength to be able to push and hold above 6100. The start of the second week of December looks unlikely to hold above 6100.
This week the major economic event is on Wednesday with the release of thee consumer price index latest figures and the Consumer Price Index numbers on Thursday. Either of these could impact stocks but presently stocks remain bullish.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Wholesale inventories are expected to rise to 0.2% from -0.2% prior.