Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday The Empire State manufacturing index came in at -14.5 versus an expected 4.0 versus 9.1 for the prior month. This surprised investors and much of the day was spent with stocks trading sideways. It was also triple witching and while volume rose, the markets did not. The close saw the S&P flat on the day, virtually unchanged.
The SPX ended unchanged at 4719 on 8.8 billion shares traded, the heaviest day of trading in 2023. There were only 13 new 52 week lows.
The NASDAQ ended higher by 52 points to close at 14,814.
Trading volume jumped to 8.9 billion shares, the highest number of daily trades for 2023. New 52 week lows were 111 on the NASDAQ,
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Dec 15 2023 to see what to expect for Mon Dec 18 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Dec 15 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages and above the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is rising further, which is also bullish.
The closing candlestick is neutral for Monday signaling a chance for a dip but still bullish overall.
The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day for another up signal.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower and the Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher, signaling the Bollinger Bands Squeeze is ending.
The S&P chart is more bullish with only the neutral candlestick the only non-bullish signal for Monday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Dec 15 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Fri Dec 15 2023 the up signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is signaling overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is positive. It is also into overbought readings.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged and positive. It is overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. It is signaling that we could see a negative close on Monday but overall the index is still bullish.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4720 is resistance |
| 4700 is resistance |
| 4675 is resistance |
| 4650 is resistance |
| 4625 is resistance |
| 4615 is resistance |
| 4600 is support |
| 4590 is support |
| 4575 is light support |
| 4565 is light support |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4475 is support |
| 4450 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 18 2023
Historically the week leading to the Christmas holiday is bullish. For Monday the technical indicators are showing some signs of weakness but remain bullish overall.
The day could see a fair amount of sideways action but a higher close should be expected.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Major economic events this week are Housing starts on Tuesday, GDP (revised) on Thursday and durable goods orders on Friday. This week is light on economic data which often assists the bulls in pushing stocks higher.
Monday:
Home builder confidence is expected to come in higher at 36 from last month’s 34.