Prior Trading Day Summary
On Fri Dec 12 stocks opened higher and then fell throughout the day. The SPX high for the day was 6899 and the low 6801 for a wide move intraday. The close was down 73 points to 6827.
Volume on New York was 5 billion, 100 million less that Thursday’s volume. 65% of all stocks were falling. For the week, the SPX lost just 43 points.
The NASDAQ fell more thanks to all the tech names that were declining. The index lost 398 points to close at 23,195. Volume was 9 billion, the highest single day since Nov 24. 67% of all stocks were falling on Friday.
For the week, the NASDAQ lost 383 points.
While historically the first two weeks of December tend to be weaker than the final three weeks, the technical indicators showed growing weakness on Friday that investors should review.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Dec 12 2025 to see what we should expect for Mon Dec 15 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Dec 12 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. The SPX is trying to break free of the sideways trend but was unable to do so on Friday.
The closing candlestick is bearish with slight shadows indicating weakness and probable dips on Monday.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed lower at 6771. The 21 day will fall below the 50 day if Monday ends negative. This will be a major down signal if it occurs.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6761 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6603 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6355 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling further below the 100 day moving average. This is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which is also bearish.
By the close on Friday there are more bearish signals than bullish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Dec 12 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and only slightly positive which is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Nov 28. On Fri Dec 12 2025 the up signal lost a a large amount of strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling signaling lower day should be expected for Monday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6925 is resistance |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is support |
| 6650 is support |
| 6625 is support |
| 6600 is support |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 15 2025
Monday starts with many bearish signals which are growing in strength. The Bollinger Bands are turning down indicating a lower move is possibly building.
Overall though the losses last week were minor and historically the first two weeks of December have been weak. The remaining three weeks historically are stronger.
Monday though looks weak. We could see a bounce attempt at the open but then more weakness as investors will continue to sell tech names lower to start the week.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire state manufacturing survey is estimated to fall to 10.0 from 18.7 prior
10:00 Home builder confidence index is estimated unchanged at 38