Stocks on Friday took the rising inflation data in stride. Inflation rose 6.8% in November (year-over-year), marking the fastest rate move since 1982. Even without food and energy the rate was 4.9%. The early morning saw choppy trading with a drop around 11:00 AM that took the S&P to 4670. That proved to be the day’s low as the S&P staged a rally back and in the final hour of trading, increasing volume saw the index push to close at 4712, up 44 points or almost 1% . The close was at the high of the day which often signals a weak start to the next trading day.
The NASDAQ also had an excellent day, climbing 113 points to close at 15,630 a gain of almost three-quarters of a percent.
One other event was of significant importance on Friday. A new MACD up signal was issued by the close. Although unconfirmed, volumes were steadily in favor of pushing still higher this week.
Let’s review Friday’s trading to see what to expect for stocks on Monday.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Dec 10 2021
The closing candlestick on Friday was bullish for Monday however it also indicated a morning drop is likely, after the index closed at the high of the day on Friday..
The 21 day moving average is starting to turn higher which is bullish. The other remaining major moving averages, namely the 50, 100 and 200 day are still climbing. This is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is over. The Lower Bollinger Band is falling and the Upper Bollinger Band is starting to rise. These are bullish signals.
Overall the chart is far more bullish than bearish for Monday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Dec 10 2021
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an confirmed down signal on Wed Nov 17 2021 . On Friday an unconfirmed up signal was issued as the MACD histogram also continued to rise.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal for Monday.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is also rising.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4725 is resistance
4700 is resistance
4655 is light support.
4600 is good support
4550 is light support
4525 is light support
4500 is support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Dec 13 2021
The closing candlestick on Friday pointed to a strong finish to the day which often means we will see some selling early the next trading day. Therefore on Monday, watch for a drop near the open or certainly in the morning. It is though an opportunity to setup trades.
Despite the inflation data, we are now entering the second half of the month which is more bullish than the first half. The strongest indication of this is the new, but unconfirmed up signal from MACD, the first up signal since Nov 17. This points to growing strength and the likelihood that the second half of the month will continue to benefit the bulls.
For Monday then, expect weakness in the morning but for the afternoon expect a higher close. Monday’s close should confirm Friday’s MACD up signal.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
