Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Fri Dec 8 the November non-farm payroll numbers were a surprise, coming in at 199,000 up from last month’s 150,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% rather than rose as expected. This started the day with some selling but by the end of the day investors had pushed higher despite the rise in the payroll numbers.
The day ended with the S&P up 18 points to close at 4604 on light volume of 3.8 billion shares traded. For the week the SPX was up 15 points marking the sixth week in a row for gains on the S&P.
The NASDAQ ended the day up 64 points, closing at 14,403 and reasonable volume of 5.6 billion shares. For the week the NASDAQ was up 64 points. This also marked 6 weeks of steady positive gains for the index.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Dec 8 2023 to see what to expect for Mon Dec 11 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Dec 8 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages and was still below the Upper Bollinger Band. The 21 day moving average is back rising which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday.
The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising sharply and closed on Friday above the 100 day moving average. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway which could see stocks move lower or higher. At present the signals are pointing higher for the SPX out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish with only a couple of cautionary signals, in particular the 50 day moving average still being below the 100 day which is bearish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Dec 8 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Wed Dec 6 2023 a new unconfirmed down signal was issued but on both Thursday and Friday last week the down signal was not confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and positive.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising sharply and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling no large swings are expected intraday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4650 is resistance |
| 4625 is resistance |
| 4615 is resistance |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4590 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4565 is resistance |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4475 is support |
| 4450 is support |
| 4440 is support |
| 4425 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4375 is support |
| 4350 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 11 2023
For Monday the index is steady enough that dips should be short-lived and reasonably shallow when or if they occur. The close will be higher.
The SPX 4550 level is still strong support for the rally. Closing higher on Monday will be very positive for the rally.
Historically the second week of December has been positive 65% of the time since I have kept records from 1974.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Major economic events this week are Consumer Price Index readings due out on Tuesday (tomorrow), the Producer Price Index due out on Wednesday and the latest FOMC interest rate decision due out at 2:00 PM on Wednesday followed by Fed Chair Powell’s new conference.
Monday:
There are no economic events that will impact markets.