Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday stocks rallied on the speech of Fed Chair Powell who investors believed confirmed what they had suspected. Interest rate cuts will start in September as the country heads into a Presidential Election.
The S&P closed up 30 points to close at 5601. For the week, the index rose 47 points on 3.4 billion shares traded, the highest volume for the week.
The NASDAQ rose 147 points to close at 17,766. For the week the index was up 134 points despite Thursday’s almost 300 point plunge.
The NASDAQ volume rose to 5.5 billion shares traded with 301 new highs and 56 new lows.
With Friday’s rally, the question for the final week of August is how much higher will investors push stocks, especially ahead of September which tends to have a mixed history including some wicked triple witching (Friday of third week of September) days. Often September has set up October for major plunges. September is a month to stay cautious amd watch the stock market outlook technical indicators.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Aug 23 2024 to see what the signals advise for Mon Aug 26 2024 to start the fourth and final week of August.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Aug 23 2024
The index closed above all the major moving averages on Friday which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish but again long shadows signal a chance for dips today.
The 21 day moving average is turning higher but failed to cross above the 50 day last week This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5487. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5345 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5121 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and has turned lower which is bullish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is also bullish.
The S&P chart is strongly bullish but the closing candlestick is still warning of dips.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Aug 23 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive. It is overbought.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Aug 14 2024. On Fri Aug 23 2024 the up signal gained strength but note the histogram is unchanged which is a bit of a concern for the up signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Monday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5660 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5625 is resistance |
| 5615 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5540 is resistance |
| 5525 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5470 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5300 is support |
| 5275 is support |
| 5250 is support |
| 5225 is support |
| 5200 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Aug 26 2024
For Monday the technical indicators are a bit mixed but still showing more strength to the up signal than down. Some concern is shown in the MACD up signal not gaining strength despite the rally on Friday.
With the Fed decision out-of-the-way for the moment, investors have to decide whether they are confident enough to keep pushing stocks higher with so many stocks already overbought.
Monday will see some dips but the technical indicators still point to a higher close on Monday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Durable goods orders are expected to rise to 4% from the prior -6.7%
8:30 Durable goods orders less transportation as expected to be unchanged at 0.5%