Prior Trading Day Summary
On Friday the attention was on the meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin. Stocks spent the day drifting and ended lower.
The S&P fell 18 points to 6449 but for the week was up 60 points marking a second week in a row of gains.
The NASDAQ lost 87 points to close at 21623 and for the week it was up 172 points, again a two straight weeks of gains.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Fri Aug 15 2025 to see what they advise for the start of the third week of August.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Aug 15 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and just below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday although signaling a chance for a dip or two today.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6363 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6227 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6073 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5900 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower and may fall below the 50 day today or tomorrow which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is ending and stocks still are positioned to move higher out of the squeeze but with the index overbought, we could see some weakness, especially at the start of this week.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday but there are some warnings signals.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Aug 15 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Aug 13 2025. On Fri Aug 15 2025 the up signal was stronger.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and now overbought. It could dip to a down signal today.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling a lower close for Monday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Aug 18 2025
This week we get a number of retail stocks reporting earnings, including the giant Walmart and to a lesser extent, Target.
For Monday, the index is positioned for a potential dip or two intraday but the signals are pointing to a higher close on the day. Stocks are overbought but there is still room to the upside.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Home Builder Confidence is estimated to rise to 34 from 33 which is still quite low for the Home Builders