Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday April 25, stocks continued their advance. The SPX rose 30 points to close at 5525. For the week, the SPX added 232 points. Volume was a bit weaker at 4.2 billion shares traded and just 52% of stocks were climbing. The NASDAQ rose 216 points to close at 17382. For the week the index added 1096 points. Volume was below average at 7.5 billion shares traded but 63% of the volume was to the upside.
As we enter the final week of April and one of the busiest earnings weeks for the quarter, let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Fri Apr 25 2025 to see what we should expect for Mon Apr 28 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Apr 25 2025
The index closed above the 21 day but below the 200 day moving average again. This is bearish..
The closing candlestick is bullish but the long shadow from Friday’s close advises we could see some dips today.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5380. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5636 which is bearish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15. which issued a 4th down signal on the SPX. The 50 day on Friday fell below the 200 day for a 5th down signal. down signal..
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5686 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5636 which is bearish.
All the moving averages are continuing their decline with five down signals despite the index rallying all of last week.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which may signal a Bollinger Bands Squeeze later this week.
For Monday the SPX chart is bearish but pointing to a possible higher close.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Apr 25 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Fri Apr 25 2025 the up signal was stronger.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place and is signaling overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising..
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and indicating a higher day is likely for Monday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5359 is resistance |
| 5300 is support |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 28 2025
The rally has slowed over the past two trading days but remains positive. The technical indicators are positive and starting to show readings that signal overbought. All of this is great to see, but the down signals continue to also gain strength. This makes the rally from last week suspect of failing. That seems unlikely, but it is worth keeping watch for further deterioration in the up signal.
For Monday the morning looks to be weaker but the close still looks positive especially as investors prepare for an avalanche of earnings this week, especially from many big cap stocks.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods is estimated slightly lower at -150 versus -147.8 prior
8:30 Advanced retail inventories are expected to climb to 0.3% from 0.1% prior
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories are estimated to be unchanged at 0.3%
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index is estimated to rise slightly to 4.8% from 4.7% prior
10:00 Consumer confidence is estimated to fall to 87.7 from 92.9 prior
10:00 Job openings are expected to slip to 7.4 million from 7.6 million prior