Summary:
On Thursday the up momentum from Wednesday’s close helped to push stocks higher. As well many investors were picking through the carnage of the tech sector which also helped stocks move higher. The close saw the S&P reach 2650 but end the day slight below it. All 3 indexes opened the day on Thursday higher, and moved higher into the close of the month of March. Overall March was dismal for stocks and one of the worst monthly records for the month in over a decade.
Closing Statistics:
On March 29th (2018) the closing price for S&P 500 was $2640.87. The security opened up, and rose 1.38%.
The closing price for NASDAQ Composite was $7063.45. The security opened up, and rose 1.64%.
The closing price for Dow Jones Industrial Average was $24103.11. The security opened up, and rose 1.07%.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close:
The chart overall remains bearish.
The S&P closed below the 100, 50 and 21 day moving averages again on Thursday but managed to cling to above the 200 day moving average.
The close left behind a bullish candlestick for Mon Apr 2 2018.
The 50 day moving average is falling as is the 100 day moving average. Both of these signals are bearish.
The 21 day moving average is turning lower signaling more downside action is expected as it falls below 2700.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling away from the 200 day moving average which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing which is bullish.
The S&P chart remains bearish.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is negative and rising.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on March 20. That sell signal was strong again on Thursday but oversold.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator signal is negative and rising.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for Monday and it is signaling oversold.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is rising.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. The rate of change is negative and trying to rise.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
2745 to 2750 was light support
2710 was light support.
2700 was good support.
2675 was light support.
2650 is light support and 2620 is also light support.
There is good support at the 2550 level from where the market bounced back from the recent correction on Feb 9.
The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350. 2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction as a drop to this level would be 20% and just 5% away from a potential bear market signal.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Apr 2 2018
The technical indicators are still very negative and MACD and the Slow Stochastic have sell or down signals in place. Some indicators that are negative are turning higher. However they are overall negative on the outlook for stocks heading into April.
Monday should see a choppy day. A morning dip is expected, possibly right out of the gate Monday morning. The close looks like it will be positive as many of the negative technical indicators are turning higher and showing some strength, even if it is from overall weak numbers. On Monday then, watch for a morning dip and then a rally back up, possibly to retake 2650 or 2670,
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