FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 18 2022 – Lower To Start Third Week Of April

Apr 17, 2022 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook Bias Lower

Thursday saw investors reverse Wednesday’s gains and send the indexes lower as interest rates rose higher.

The S&P lot 1.2% to fall 54 points and end the week at 4392. The NASDAQ fell 292 points losing 2.1% to end the week at 13,351.

Let’s review Thursday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for the start of the third week of April.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Apr 14 2022 

On Thursday the 21 day moving average stopped climbing and began to turn sideways. This is bearish.

Meanwhile the Bollinger Bands are into a squeeze which is looking more bearish after Thursday’s reversal day.

The closing candlestick on Thursday is also bearish for Monday. The closing candlestick was back below the 200 day moving average which is also bearish.

The 200 day moving average is rising above the 4400 level which is bullish. The 50 day moving average is beginning to fall again. A drop below the 200 day would be another bearish signal.

The 100 day moving average is also starting to dip lower.

The chart is about 80% bearish for the start of the week.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Apr 14 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal Friday April 8. On Thursday the down signal strengthened. The histogram also is strongly negative.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling back toward oversold levels.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place and is oversold.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling back toward oversold.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating investors should expect lower prices for Monday.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4650 is resistance

4640 is resistance

4625 is resistance

4600 is strong resistance

4590 is resistance

4575 is light resistance

4560 is light resistance

4550 is light resistance

4525 is light support

4500 is support

4490 is light support

4475 is light support

4450 is light support

4400 is support

4370 is light support

4350 is light support.

4300 is good support


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Apr 18 2022 

For Monday the technical indicators are decidedly bearish. Many of the bearish signals have gained strength following Thursday’s give back of Wednesday’s rally.

Overall Monday looks bearish with a lower close. There is a possibility of a large move lower on Monday. 4400 was good support followed by light support at 4370 and 4350. That means on Monday the SPX has a good chance to spike above 4400 before falling back and testing the 4370 and possibly the 4350 support levels.

Other concerns include the 21 day moving average which is now falling after having risen and given two important up signals. The 50 day is also falling and could move below the 200 day which would be another bearish signal. For the start of the week I plan to buy SPY put options using Apr 29 expiry at the 435 put strike.  On Monday we get the home builders index.

Potential Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Home builders index

Tuesday:

8:30 Building permits

8:30 Housing starts

Wednesday: 

10:00 Existing home sales

10:30 to 1:00 – 3 different Fed Presidents speak at different events

2:00 Fed Beige Book released

Thursday:

8:30 Initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims

8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

10:00 Leading economic indicators

12:30 St Louis Fed Bullard speaks (nothing new expected)

1:00 Fed Chair Powell speaks on global economy to IMF (nothing new expected but could see market shift slightly depending on what is said)

Friday:

9:45 S&P global US manufacturing PMI and US services PMI

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 25 2023 – Second Bounce Attempt But Still Bearish

Stock Market Outlook Another bounce attempt probable
Prior Trading Day Summary On Friday investors attempted a bounce which lasted until the afternoon when sellers returned and pushed back at buyers. Another attempt late afternoon also found ready ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Sep 22 2023

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Sep 22 2023 discuss the outlook following Thursday's massive sell-off. As well there are comments about setting up a repair ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 22 2023 – Bounce Attempt But More Selling Likely

Stock Market Outlook Possible Bounce Attempt But More Selling Likely
Prior Trading Day Summary On Thursday investors decided to take profits as they worried that interest rates will stay higher, longer. Some analysts predicted high interest rates through all of ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Sep 21 2023

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Sep 21 2023 discuss the outlook following yesterday's Fed induced sell-off. There are also a number of trades planned including ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 21 2023 – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Bearish bounce likely
Prior Trading Day Summary On Wednesday the Fed news conference sunk the market as Fed Chair Powell made it clear in his press conference at 2:30, the chance of a ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Sep 20 2023 – All About The Fed

All About The Fed
Prior Trading Day Summary On Tuesday stocks fell sharply and broke through 4425, falling to 4416 before staging a rebound. The close was back to 4443.95 just a few points ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Sep 20 2023

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Sep 20 2023 discuss the outlook for today along with comments on the Fed's interest rate announcement, due out today ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 19 2023 – Bearish Bounce Possible

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 19 2023 - Bearish Bounce Possible
Prior Trading Day Summary On Monday stocks tested the 4450 level intraday and managed to hold it and close above it. This continue to keep the rally alive. The S&P ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Sep 19 2023

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Sep 19 20233 discuss the outlook for today along with a variety of trades. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Sep 18 2023

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Sep 18 2023 discuss the outlook for the start of the week. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 18 2023 – Sideways With A Slight Bias Lower

Stock Market Outlook Sideways
Prior Trading Day Summary On Friday stocks fell on little news but investors took profits in many tech stocks as volume jumped due to quarterly options expiration. Overall investors gave ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 15 2023 – Choppy – Dips Likely – But Still Up

Stock Market Outlook choppy dips like but up
Prior Trading Day Summary On Thursday the PPI numbers were higher than estimated but investors bought into stocks anyway. With the ARM IPO hotly traded on Thursday, the SPX ended ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Sep 15 2023

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Sep 15 2023 discuss the outlook for Friday along with a variety of other topics. There are also a number ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Sep 14 2023 – Another Bounce Attempt

Stock Market Outlook Another bounce attempt probable
Prior Trading Day Summary On Wednesday the latest CPI report surprised investors as Core CPI rose to 0.3% versus 0.2% the month prior and the CPI Index remained unchanged at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Sep 14 2023

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Sep 14 2023 discuss the outlook for Thursday following the release of the latest PPI reports. There are also a ....... Read More

SEARCH

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Related Articles