Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thursday the S&P squeaked out a gain while the NASDAQ witnessed a small loss. Overall it was a good day of trading on higher volume which is always a bullish sign.
The SPX rose almost 6 points to close at 5354. For the week the index was up 20 points. Volume was 4 billion shares traded on Thursday. There were 369 new 52 week highs and just 12 new lows. This is quite bullish.
The NASDAQ lost 20 points to close down at 16379. For the week the NASDAQ lost 49 points. Volume rose to 5.3 billion with 277 new highs on Friday which is bullish.
Let’s review the close on Thu Mar 28 2024 to see what to expect for Mon Apr 1 2024 .
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Mar 28 2024
The index closed just below the Upper Bollinger Band and above the 21 day moving average. This is bullish for the index.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday but also indicates there is a strong potential for a dip in the morning.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5167 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5046, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4669 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and moving higher which is usually bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which signals the SPX index is in an uptrend. This is also bullish.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday but the closing candlestick indicates clearly a high potential for a dip in the morning.
https://www.fullyinformed.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/spx2024-mar-28.gif
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Mar 28. This signal was unconfirmed before the long weekend. For Monday the up signal is expected to be confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising indicating Monday will be higher for stocks.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is support |
| 5075 is support |
| 5050 is support |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 1 2024
For Monday April 1, the technical indicators are overwhelmingly positive. The closing candlestick from Thursday is the major concern as it points to some selling today. However the technical indicators are showing bullish strength again building in the indexes.
On Friday the PCE numbers were released despite the Easter holiday. They were in-line with estimates and suggested that the economy is not overheating.
For Monday expect a dip in the morning which could be deeper than expected. The close though is expected to be still higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The major event this week is the March non-farm payroll numbers due out on Friday at 8:30.
Monday:
9:45 S&P USA manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 52.5
10:00 Consumer spending is expected to rise to 0.7%
10:00 ISM manufacturing is expected to rise to 48.1% from 47.8% prior.