Thursday saw the markets close higher with the NASDAQ setting another new all-time high. Much of the buying was the result of data showing the last quarter grew faster than expected and consumers spent more than estimated. Oil prices moved higher and ConocoPhillips (COP) rose 8.8 percent pulling the energy sector higher. It was the 5th straight up day for the NASDAQ index and the 3rd straight up day for the S&P.
Let’s look at Thursday’s closing numbers and then take a technical overview of Thursday’s trading.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index ended the day up 6.93 points to close at 2368.06
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended up 69.17 points to close at 20,728.49
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 16.80 points to end the day at 5,914.34
Stock Market Outlook
Chart Comments At The Close:
By the end of the day on Thursday the S&P had recovered the 21 day moving average and closed just above it.
The end of the day saw a bullish candlestick for Friday.
The 200 and 100 day moving averages are continuing to climb.
The 50 day and 21 day are moving sideways and the Lower Bollinger Band is still trending on top of the 50 day which is a rather neutral stance at the present time.
The S&P closed back above the 2350 valuation on Thursday for the third day.
Stock Market Outlook review of Thursday Mar 30 2017
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is negative but still rising.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal Mar 7 2017. At the close of trading on Friday the sell signal was weaker, but still present.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and rising toward oversold.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place with quite solid signals.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change signal is extremely oversold. It is at levels where bounces occur so we could see further upside action Friday or Monday.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is rising and will be nearing overbought readings shortly.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings, but settings I use for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has an up signal in place which is also quite solid.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
The market has light support at the 2350, 2300 and the 2250 level. There is also light support at 2195 but better support is at 2180 and then 2150.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Friday Mar 31 2017
For Friday we have 3 negative technical signals. One of those is the Rate Of Change which is at oversold levels that almost always result in a decent bounce higher for stocks.
There are also two strong buy signals in place from the two stochastic indicators. These signals are strongly bullish and quite solid at this time.
Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Ultimate Oscillator are rising quickly and nearing overbought signals.
For Friday then we have 4 positive and 3 negative indicators.
We should see another sideways type day on Friday and even some possible dips could happen.
Remember too that Friday is the final day of March and some investors will be adjusting positions which will leads to some sideways or even a few dips.
Last, don’t forget the NASDAQ has been up 5 days straight and set a new high. We have seen the markets face selling with each new high reached by the NASDAQ so some selling should also be expected on Friday.
However by the close the indexes should be higher. That means dips on Friday are opportunities for more trades.
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