Stock Market Outlook for Mar 20 2017 – Unchanged At Sideways With Slight Bias Up

Stock Market Outlook - sideways slight bias upOn Friday stocks once again moved sideways and tried to rally only to give much of it back as the afternoon came to close. By the end of the day the S&P was lower along with Dow while the NASDAQ  squeaked out a very slim positive close.

Intraday the NASDAQ made another new all-time high.

Let’s look at the closings on Friday and then take a technical overview.

S&P Index Close

The S&P index ended the day down 3.13 points to close at 2,378.25.

Dow Jones Index Close

The Dow Jones ended down 19.93 points to close at 20,914.62.

NASDAQ Index Close

The NASDAQ closed up 0.24 points to end the day at 5,901.



Stock Market Outlook

Chart Comments At The Close:

On Friday Mar 17 2017 the S&P ended the day in-between the Upper Bollinger Band and the Middle Bollinger Band. The day’s action left behind a bearish candlestick for Monday. This was the second day in a row for a bearish close.

However the S&P did close above the 21 day moving average which is also the Middle Bollinger Band, for the 3 day following Wednesday’s big rally.

The Lower Bollinger Band is now turning sideways as the Bollinger Bands Squeeze is now underway. There is a good chance the S&P will slip lower, to fall below the Middle Bollinger Band.

But all the major moving averages are all still climbing which is bullish.

Stock Market Outlook review of March 17 2017

Stock Market Outlook review of March 17 2017

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:

Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is slightly negative and trending sideways.

MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal Mar 7 2017. At the close of trading on Friday the sell signal was still dominant but it is not overly strong. In general the bias remains steady with negative readings just above negative 2. This is more a weakness signal than a pullback signal.

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is now positive and falling.

Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.

Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present.  The rate of change signal is positive but continuing to move lower which indicates a strong possibility of lower prices lie ahead.

Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.  The RSI signal is still moving lower.

Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings, but settings I use for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has an up signal in place.


Support Levels To Be Aware Of:

A bounce is possible off 2355 which is the 21 day moving average.

The market has light support at the 2350, 2300 and the 2250 level.  There is also light support at 2195 but better support is at 2180 and then 2150.


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Monday Mar 20 2017

The technical indicators are still signaling weakness for the S&P. There are no signals that are showing major concerns, just continued weakness. The stochastic signals are pointing to higher moves while the MACD, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Ultimate Oscillator are pointing to lower moves. Momentum is negative but moving sideways which again indicates more sideways action.

Monday should see more sideways action but there could be an attempt late morning to early afternoon to move higher. The close though still looks flat to slightly negative or positive. Not a lot of change in general, is expected by the closing price for all 3 indexes.

The underlying current though is still up but choppiness and weakness is curtailing any advance at the present time.


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