The outlook for today was for the market to basically drift but keep an upward bias. As explained last night, the market for the past couple of years has often rallied on the day before the unemployment report,
S&P Index Close
The S&P had another weak opening and within the first half hour it had set the day’s low at 2088.59. From that point until the close the S&P climbed higher until by the end of the day it had retaken the 2100 level to close at 2105.26 for a gain of 5.93 points.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones open was as weak as the S&P falling to 17,703.55 within the first 20 minutes of trading. By the close it had gained 48.89 points to end the day at 17,838.56.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ also fell in the first 20 minutes of trading reaching 4924.23 and then rallying higher to close up 0.39% for the largest percentage gain among the three major indexes. It closed at 4971.36.
Stock Market Outlook – Advance Decline Numbers
Volume was up by 100 million shares to 3.6 billion, which is almost average for New York. By the close 65% of all volume was to the upside and 63% of all stocks were advancing. There were 118 new highs by the close and just 8 new lows.
The NASDAQ traded below average volume again with just 1.67 billion shares traded. 66% of all volume was to the upside and 58% of all stocks were advancing. By the close there were 76 new highs and 20 new lows.
Volume, while low, continues to suggest that the market is intent on climbing higher. Triple digit new highs for New York today is a good sign for the bulls but overall we need to see steadier new highs that are climbing every day and stay in the triple digits.
The NASDAQ is climbing on thin volume which always makes the prospects of a fall that much more likely. Volume for the NASDAQ needs to improve.
Stock Market Outlook – Technical Indicators At The Close
At the close today there is not a lot of value in the technical indicators as the market moving event for Friday is the unemployment number. Suffice to say, overall the technical indicators remain more bullish than bearish, but that can change depending on the unemployment numbers.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Friday June 3 2016
For Friday the technical indicators are bullish but a lot depends once again on the unemployment numbers. My personal outlook is the numbers will be “decent” and the market may try to move higher and then pullback but still end the day positive. That though is just an opinion. The technical indicators are more bullish than bearish which could mean that the market in general will advance even if the unemployment number is good or bad.
The unemployment numbers are released in the morning before the open, around 8:30. We could see weakness to start the day if the numbers show too much strength as strong numbers suggests the likelihood of an interest rate increase for June is high. If the unemployment number is poor, which I am not expecting, the market could rally on the basis that poor numbers show the economy is weak and there is no reason for an interest rate hike.
We will certainly see by the open which way is correct.
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