Wednesday June 21 saw the market indexes split with the continuing drop in crude oil prices pressuring the Dow Jones and the S&P indexes, while tech stocks rose, pushing the NASDAQ higher and erasing much of the losses sustained on Tuesday for the NASDAQ.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index ended the day down 1.42 points to close at 2435.61
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended down 57.11 at 21,410.03
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 45.92 points to end the day at 6233.95
Stock Market Outlook
Chart Comments At The Close:
The S&P during the day on Wednesday fell to the 21 day moving average and then bounced off of it to close down just a point and a half. The drop to the 21 day is important as tomorrow we get to see if the S&P can stay above the 21 day or fall below it.
All the major moving averages are still climbing which is bullish. The closing candlestick was neutral on the outlook for Thursday.
SPX to June 21 2017
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is neutral.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) has issued a sell signal on June 20. Today that sell signal was confirmed.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive, overbought and moving sideways.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for Thursday.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change is moving lower.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is also falling.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings, but settings I use for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
The market has light support at the 2425, 2400, 2380, 2350 and 2300 levels.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Jun 22 2017
For Thursday we have 3 sell signals now in place.
The problem is the decline in the price of oil which is weighing on stocks on the S&P. A move higher in the price of oil would propel stocks up. At the present time however that does not appear to be happening.
Therefore the outlook is unchanged from Wednesday with sideways still in place while holding a bias to the downside. Stocks should end Thursday lower once again unless the price of oil can improve from Wednesday’s close.
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