With crude oil prices back falling they have wiped out all gains from 2017 and are trading at levels last seen in November 2016 (WTI). This weighed heavily on the markets. Combined with the dollar rising to a one month high against the backdrop of more hawkish comments by Fed officials and the stock markets on Tuesday, gave back much of the gains made from Monday’s rally.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index ended the day down 16.43 points to close at 2437.03
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended down 61.85 points to 21,467.14
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed down 50.98 points to end the day at 6188.03
Stock Market Outlook
Chart Comments At The Close:
The S&P index gave back most of yesterday’s rally but still closed above the 21 day moving average keeping the outlook still to the upside. All the major moving averages are still rising. 2425 is light support but as you can see in the chart, the S&P has revisited the 2425 valuation many times over the past month and managed to recover to above it. The closing candlestick on Tuesday is bearish for Wednesday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jun 20 2017
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is positive but only slightly and falling.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) has issued two buy signals and as of today, two sell signals over the past several days. None of the buy or sell signals has been confirmed. Tonight at the close, the sell signal looked ready to be confirmed on Wednesday with a lower close expected.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive, overbought and moving sideways.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic is overbought and neutral.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change was moving higher but turned back down today. It is more sideways than up or down.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is also sideways.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings, but settings I use for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
The market has light support at the 24252, 2400, 2380, 2350 and 2300 levels.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wednesday Jun 21 2017
For Wednesday the technical indicators are split.
There are two sell signals, 3 neutral or sideways signals and 2 positive and falling signals.
This gives us the outlook of sideways on Wednesday and since there are no up signals, the bias is to the downside for Wednesday.
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