Wednesdays have been strong days for the market both when moving higher and lower. Volumes have regularly been good on Wednesdays and moves up or down have been more extended than other days of the trading week. Overall there have been far more up Wednesday’s than down in 2017. Today’s gains came in part from Fed comments by Chair Janet Yellen who seemed to indicate that the Fed may not need to raise rates much further to reach a neutral position as they believe inflation is well in check. That and the fact that the S&P has held the 2425 level, seemed to be enough to push the S&P back above the 21 day moving average.
The televised testimony by Janet Yellen today was interesting as she was repeatedly asked whether she would consider staying on as Fed Chair. I guess one answer on her part was just not enough. Aside to that, the bigger concerns seemed to be what the Fed is thinking regarding the enormous national debt and where is inflation.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index ended the day up 17.72 to close at 2443.25 and within less than a dozen points of its all-time high.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended up 123.07 to 21,532.14 but set a new intraday high of 21,580.79.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 67.86 to 6,261.17 to within 76 points of its all-time high.
Stock Market Outlook
Chart Comments At The Close:
The S&P closed back above the 21 day moving average, or the Middle Bollinger Band today. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze that had formed is starting to show signs of possibly ending. During this most recent pullback the 21 day moving average failed to drop below the 50 day moving average although it is still very close to a possible cross-over. The 100 and 200 day moving averages are still climbing which is bullish.
S&P end of day July 12 2017
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum turned positive today after 8 trading days of being negative.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) has issued a sell signal on June 20. Today, the sell signal was weaker and the histogram is continuing to see the downside erode. An up signal may follow shortly.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and rising.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic issued a buy or up signal on July 7 and is continuing to strengthen to the upside.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is rising and shortly will move to overbought, a bullish sign.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change signal is positive and looks ready to try to climb.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
The market has developed good support at 2425 and light support at 2400, 2380, 2350 and 2300.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thursday Jul 13 2017
For Thursday the outlook is for trading to be choppy but continue to try to rise. Dips should be expected as the S&P tries to retake the final few points to establish another new all-time high. MACD may continue to have a sell signal for another day but the push is to the upside and stocks should continue higher in what will be a choppy day.
Delta reports earnings on Thursday. If strong, they will assist the overall market in moving higher.
Stay FullyInformed With Email Updates
Market Direction Internal Links
Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)
Understanding Short-Term Signals
Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)
Market Direction External Links
IWM ETF Russell 2000 Fund Info
Market Direction SPY ETF 500 Fund Info