Statistics on Thu Aug 31 2017 showed consumers spending more but inflation hardly rising at all. It was growing at speeds seen back in 2015. Analysts believe that means the chance of a Fed Rate hike is slim for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile oil moved up slightly, the dollar pulled back as did gold. Finally, news that a tax reform plan might be in the works and ready by year-end was enough to boost the market through the 2470 late in the day.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index ended up 14.06 to 2471.65
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended up 27.06 to 21,892.43.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 66.42 to 6368.31.
Stock Market Outlook
Chart Comments At The Close:
The S&P on Thursday closed above all major moving averages and the 21 day moving average. The 21 day which has been falling toward the 50 day appears to be turning sideways. The 100 day moving average has crossed up and above the Lower Bollinger Band which is bullish for the index. The 100 and 200 day moving average are continuing to rise. The closing candlestick saw the S&P just above the 2470 level at 2471.65. The chance of its dipping below it is very high for Friday. But the chance of staying below it slim.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is positive and rising.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an unconfirmed buy signal today.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and rising.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal still in place for Friday.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is rising and entering overbought signals.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change signal is still negative and but is continuing to indicate that prices may rise.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
The market had developed light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. There is also light support at 2400, 2380, 2350 and 2300.
The market rose above 2460 and 2470 on Thursday. There is no support at either level and the S&P should dip below 2470 intraday on Friday.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Friday Sep 1 2017
Bullish signs are continuing to grow from the technical indicators. We now have 2 buy signals, 3 positive signals and only 1 negative signal which is also rising.
The outlook is higher for the S&P.
The likelihood of the S&P retested 2470 and possibly 2460 is quite high. Any such dip will be an opportunity to setup more trades as the outlook is still higher.
Friday we should watch for dips to take advantage of them. The close if it is negative should be slight. I am looking for a positive close.
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