Stock Market Outlook For Fri Sep 5 2025 – All About August Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Thu Sep 4 2025, stocks raced higher later in the day, closing at another new all-time high, rising 52 points to 6502. Volume was light at 4.7 billion shares as many investors are sitting on the sidelines ahead of the August non-farm payroll report. I think this cautionary stance continues to be a mistake. Many analysts and media pundits have been warnings for months of impending doom. At some point the market direction will change, but not now. The outlook remains bullish and has since April.

The NASDAQ closed up 209 points to 21,707. The index has added 400 points over just the past two days. Volume was 56% positive on Thursday and 58% of stocks on the NASDAQ were rising.

For Friday though, none of this matters much as the August non-farm payroll report will hold center stage in the morning. It will definitely be all about the employment numbers, today.

Lets review the closing technical indicators from Thu Sep 4 2025 to see what we should expect for Fri Sep 5 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Sep 4 2025

The index closed back above the 21 day moving average which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday although there are some signs of overbought.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6432 which is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6341 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6159 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5967 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher amd is at the 50 day moving average and ready to move above it. This is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways signaling stocks are overbought.

The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Friday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 4 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 5 2025 

The morning will be all about the August non-farm payroll report.

The ADP numbers on Thursday could impact stocks lower if the number meets estimates or is lower than 75,000 at 8:15 before the open. Analysts on average are expecting roughly 75,000 jobs will have been created in August. If the number is too high, we will see some selling in the morning. If the actual number is a bit low, we should see stocks stabilize and move higher. Investors are expecting an interest rate cut later in September. In their minds, the unemployment report for August is significant as it could help decide whether the Fed does lower interest rates or leave them flat.

Unless the numbers are terrible, I am expecting the SPX will move higher by the close on Friday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Tuesday:

9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI slipped below estimates to 53.0

10:00 ISM manufacturing rose to 48.7%, higher than estimated

10:00 Construction spending fell lower than estimated to -0.1%

Wednesday:

10:00 Job openings fell to 7.2 million, below estimates

10:00 Factory orders came in as estimated at -1.3%

2:00 Fed Beige Book is released – nothing new in the Fed’s Beige Book.

Thursday:

8:15 ADP employment came in lower than estimated at 54,000 jobs

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose higher than estimated, to 237,000

8:30 Productivity for second quarter rose more than estimated to 3.3%

8:30 Trade deficit for July sell to -78.3 billion

9:45 S&P Final services PMI is fell less than estimated to 54.5

10:00 ISM services rose more than estimated to 52.0%

Friday: 

8:30 August non-farm payroll report is expected to show 75,000 jobs created

8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated to rise slightly to 4.3%

8:30 Hourly wages are estimated to have risen 0.3%

8:30 Hourly wages year-over-year are estimated to have dipped to 3.8% down from 3.9% prior.