Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 3 2021 – All About The Jobs Numbers

Thursday’s trading session saw another advance and another new intraday high of 4545 before the index closed at 4536.

The day on Friday will be all about the August jobs numbers but despite this, the technical indicators will also play a role, even if their impact is not felt until either late in the day on Friday or the start of next week.

Let’s review Thursday’s closing technical numbers to see what they might tell us about the market direction.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Sep 2 2021 

The Lower Bollinger Band is continuing to fall further below the 50 day moving average while the Upper Bollinger Band is rising. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick for Friday however is neutral which is not uncommon ahead of the monthly unemployment report.

All the major moving averages are still climbing which is also bullish. For Friday the SPX chart remains bullish which is good even if the market dips due to the unemployment report.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 2 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Aug 27. The up signal was stronger on Thursday..

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4550 is resistance

4525 is resistance

4500 is resistance

4490 is resistance

4475 is light support

4450 is light support

4400 is good support

4370 is good support

4350 is light support

4300 is light support

4290 is light support

4270 is light support

4250 is good support

4225 is light support

4200 is good support

4175 is light support

4150 is light support

4100 is good support

4070 is light support

4050 is light support

4000 is good support

3900 is support

3850 is support

3800 is support

3750 is good support

3700 is light support

3680 is light support

3600 is strong support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Sep 3 2021 

While the market direction for the SPX (and NASDAQ) on Friday will primarily take its cue from the August unemployment report, the technical indicators are also advising that while the index is overbought, there is more upside ahead.

If on Friday the index moves lower, which at present seems unlikely, next week the index should be higher at the start of the week.

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