Prior Trading Day Summary
On Thursday stocks finally staged a small rebound rally from being deeply oversold. While certainly not the best bounce from being so oversold, it did find some buyers nibbling at stocks.
High treasury yields and oil prices though, continue to pressure stocks.
The SPX rose 25 points to close at 4299 while the NASDAQ rose 108 points to end the day at 13201.
Trading volumes were modest for both indexes with 3.8 billion shares on New York and 4.7 billion on the NASDAQ.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Sep 28 2023to see what to expect for Thu Sep 28 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Sep 28 2023
The index closed below the 50, 21 and 100 period moving averages for a sixth day which is bearish. Intraday the index broke held above the 200 day and bounced which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is also bullish as it signals Thursday was a bounce but Friday could also see a continuation of the bounce.
The closing candlestick closed at the Lower Bollinger Band which is bullish for the bounce to continue.
The 50 period and 21 period moving averages are falling which is bearish. The 200 period moving average is continuing to climb which is bullish. The 100 period moving average is trending sideways which is neutral at present.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. Overall the SPX chart is still signaling that this is a correction and nothing more. We will get a better picture on Friday whether the index can keep the bounce alive.
Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 28 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative. It is signaling extremely oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Sep 18. On Thursday the down signal was still very strong.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and negative. It is no longer oversold.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for a fourth day and is oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and negative. It is leaving oversold.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and negative.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is resistance |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is support |
| 4390 is support |
| 4370 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4330 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4300 is good support |
| 4375 is support |
| 4350 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 29 2023
For Friday stocks will try to continue Thursday’s advance as long as oil does not continue to climb as well as Treasury yields. Any dip in either and stocks will rally strongly.
All the technical indicators are still advising caution but if a rally can get enough strength it will move higher on the back of those bears who shorted over the past several days and will rush to buy back positions to control losses.
On Friday there are a number of reports that could swing stocks up or down. The technical indicators are pointing to stocks as climbing higher but the economic reports could drop stocks so stay cautious.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Today’s reports will be helpful for investors to see some of the latest inflation numbers. These could swing markets back to selling.
Friday:
8:30 Personal income
8:30 Personal spending
8:30 PCE Index including core and year-over-year
8:30 Advance trade balance in goods
8:30 Advance retail inventories
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories.