Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 28 2018 – Weakness But Up

Thursday saw all three indexes move higher in the morning but then drop back in the afternoon.

By the close of the day however, all three indexes were higher.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Sep 27 2018 

The S&P came close to the 2 day moving average on Thursday but Wednesday still had the lower close.

It closed below the Upper Bollinger Band but left behind a bearish candlestick for Friday.

The 21 day moving average is now turned sideways and no longer climbing.

The Lower Bollinger Band continued above the 50 day moving average and is now into a Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

All the major moving averages are continuing to climb. Overall the S&P chart still has a bullish outlook.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 27 2018

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is still positive but falling.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Wednesday Sep 26. Today the down signal was confirmed.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is negative and still falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic still has a down signal for Friday and is no longer overbought.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Levels To Be Aware Of:

2860 is light support

2830 is light support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support.

2700 is support.

2675 is light support.

2650 is light support

2620 is light support

2600 is strong support.

There is good support at the 2550 level from where the market bounced back from the recent correction low on Feb 9.

The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350. 2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction as a drop to this level would be 20% and just 5% away from a potential bear market signal.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Sep 28 2018 

The technical indicators are split but MACD gave a confirmed down signal today.

Overall despite this, there are signals that the S&P will close positive on Friday.

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