Prior Trading Day Summary
On Thu Sep 25 2025 investors continued the sell-off. By the close a new unconfirmed down signal had been issued by the MACD technical indicator. This is one of the more accurate indicators. At the same time, there was also a long shadow on the candlestick. Often this signals a bounce is coming.
The SPX fell 33 points to end the day at 6604. Intraday the index brushed the 21 day moving average before bouncing back. Volume rose to 5.9 billion. There were 44 new highs but 72 new 52 week lows. By the close 71% of all stocks were falling as the selling became more widespread.
The NASDAQ fell 113 points to end the day at 22,384. Volume rose to 10.2 billion as more investors engaged in selling. By the close, 73% of all stocks on the index were falling. This was the highest number of declining stocks on a single day since April 10 when 79% of all stocks were falling.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Thu Sep 25 2025 to see if stocks will rebound on Fri Sep 26 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Sep 25 2025
The index fell to the 21 day moving average on Thursday before bouncing to close off the day’s low. This left behind a negative candlestick but also a long shadow. This almost always advises that a bounce is likely, at least even a small one on Friday.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Friday but signals a bounce is likely.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6557 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6452 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6273 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6053 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways which is bearish. At present the outlook suggests the SPX may enter a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze shortly.
The SPX chart is more bullish but bearishness is definitely present. All moving averages are above 6000 which is bullish for further advances.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 25 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Sep 10 2025. On Thu Sep 25 2025 a new down signal was generated but is unconfirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal in place and is signaling overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is faling, signaling a lower close is likely for Fri Sep 26 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 26 2025
Technical indicators are all negative. Only the closing candlestick offers some hope the market may try to bounce on Friday.
The MACD technical indicators turned bearish on Thursday and issued an unconfirmed down signal.
For Friday I am expecting a bounce but then a move lower for the index.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
There are no economic reports
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI came in slightly better than estimated at 53.9
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI was better than estimated coming in at 52.0
12:35 Fed Chair Powell speaks
Wednesday:
10:00 New Home Sales jumped to 800,000, far above estimated of 650,000
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were lower than estimated, at 218,000
8:30 GDP was stronger than estimated coming in at 3.8% for the quarter
8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods came in better than estimated at -$85.5 billion
8:30 Advanced retail inventories were lower than estimated at 0.0%
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories came in lower than estimated at -0.2%
8:30 Durable goods orders came in higher than estimated at 2.9%
10:00 Existing home sales beat estimates, coming in at 4.0 million.