Stock Market Outlook for Fri Oct 6 2023 – All About September Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Thursday investors spent the day waiting for Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers. The Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were not as high as expected and that put some pressure on stocks.

The SPX fell 5 points to end the day at 4258. For the week so far, the SPX is down is 29 points.

The NASDAQ fell 16 points ending at 13219. For the week the index is flat with a half point gain.

It comes down to Friday’s September non-farm payroll numbers to determine the next direction for interest rates, treasury yields and stocks.

But with this being the case it is still worthwhile to look at the technical indicators.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Oct 5 2023 to see what Friday might bring.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Oct 5 2023

The index closed below the 50, 21, 100 and 200 period moving averages which is bearish. The index closed just below the 200 day moving average which is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish and aside from the September non-farm payroll numbers, the outlook would be lower.

The closing candlestick closed above the Lower Bollinger Band but below the 200 period which is bearish

The 21 and 50 period moving averages are now falling quickly and sharply. You can see in the chart that the 21 period will fall to the 100 possibly as early as Friday which will be a major down signal when that happens.

The 200 period moving average is continuing to climb which is bullish. The 100 period moving average is falling which is bearish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is also bearish. The S&P chart is very bearish but still shows signs of being oversold.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Oct 5 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Oct 6 2023 

For Friday the September non-farm payroll numbers will be the deciding factory for the open and much of the day. However the technical indicators still have a role to play and they remain for the most part, negative.

Aside from the non-farm payroll numbers, if Treasury yields jump on Friday, stocks will fall.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The most important report this week is today’s non-farm payroll number. If the number is a bit softer than expected, stocks will rally. If it is stronger than estimated, stocks will dip lower again.

Friday:

8:30 September non-farm payroll report expected to show 170,000 jobs

8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated at 3.7%

8:30 hourly wages are estimated to have risen 0.3% and 4.3% year over year

3:00 Consumer credit is estimated at $12 billion, up from $10.4 billion

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in at 207,000 which was slightly below estimates

8:30 Trade deficit was slightly less than estimated, coming in at -58.3 billion

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment came in at 98,000 which well was below estimates

9:45 Final US Services PMI came in at 50.1 which was in-line with estimates

10:00 Factory orders shot to 1.2% well above estimates.

10:00 ISM services dipped to 53.6% from 54.5%.

Tuesday:

10:00 Job Openings rose to 9.6 million from 8.8 million which some analysts expect show weakness in job growth

Monday:

9:45 Final manufacturing PMI was 49.8 which was higher than expected

10:00 ISM manufacturing was 49%, also higher than expected

10:00 Construction spending was 0.5% slightly less than expected