Prior Trading Day Summary
On Thu Oct 2 2025 the government shutdown continued which meant no Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims report. However other reports showed that the unemployment rate remained constant. Many analysts discussed the Fed having little choice but to cut interest rates another quarter of a point.
The SPX rose 4 points to end the day at 6715. Volume was down 600 million shares at 5.4 billion. 48% of all volume was trading higher while 50% of stocks were falling. The SPX though still closed at another new high.
The NASDAQ rose 88 points to end the day at 22,844. Volume was lower by 500 million shares to 9.9 billion. 72% of all volume was trading higher along with 56% of stocks. The NASDAQ then had stronger bullish numbers than the S&P. The NASDAQ closed at a new 52 week high.
For Friday there is no Non-Farm Payroll Numbers for September being released due to the government shutdown. That should be bullish for investors.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Thu Oct 2 2025 to see if how stocks will end the week on Friday.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Oct 2 2025
The index rallied higher and closed above the 21 day moving average and just below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday. The closing shadow on the candlestick, signals dips likely in the morning but a higher close is anticipated.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6610 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6489 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6312 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6084 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher and may cross above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is also bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish ffor the third day of October. All moving averages are above 6000 which is bullish for further advances.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Oct 2 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Oct 1 2025. On Thu Oct 2 2025 the up signal was confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is moving back to being overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling, signaling a lower close is likely today. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is support |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Oct 3 2025
On Thursday the MACD technical indicator up signal was confirmed. Many stocks are overbought but investors are continuing to buy stocks which is keeping momentum positive.
Friday looks steady for a bit of weakness in the morning but another record close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Pending home sales were much stronger than estimated, coming in at 4.0%
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index dipped more than expected, falling to 1.8%
9:45 Chicago business barometer was lower than estimated, coming in at 40.6
10:00 Job openings are rose to 7.2 million.
10:00 Consumer confidence came in at 94.2.
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment was far worse than expected coming in at -32,000.
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 52.0
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were no released due to the government shutdown
10:00 Factory orders had not report due to the government shutdown.
Friday:
8:30 September Non-Farm Payroll Numbers report is delayed due to the government shutdown
9:45 S&P final services PMI is delayed due to the government shutdown
10:00 ISM service report is delayed due to the government shutdown