Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 30 2018 – Sideways With Slight Bias Up Into G20 Summit

Thursday saw little evidence of sellers moving back into the markets. Instead the index slipped to 2722 late morning and then rose to just above 2750 until around 3:00 PM. The close saw very slight losses with a decline of only 6 points.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Nov 29 2018 

The S&P index reached the 200 day moving average again on Thursday but closed just below it. This marks the second day of the index closing above the 21 day moving average.

The 50 day moving average has fallen to the 100 day but this may be an incorrect signal as the market outlook is changed to up.

The 21 day moving average is rising as is the 200 day and 100 day.

The Lower Bollinger Band is also rising which is also bullish.

The SPX continues to struggle against 3 major sell signals but the 2700 level has been broken through for two days which is bullish.

The chart is still rather bearish and we could see the index slip back to below the 21 day but overall the outlook is still up for the market.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Nov 27 2018

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Nov 28 2018. The up signal was confirmed today.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is rising and overbought.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for Friday.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2900 was good support – this will be strong resistance

2860 was good support – this will be resistance

2830 was light support and will be light resistance

2795 is light resistance

2745 to 2750 are light resistance

2725 is support

2700 is support

2675 is light support

2650 is light support

2620 is light support

2600 is strong support and held the market up from the lowest pullback in the present correction

There is good support at the 2550 level from where the market bounced back from the recent correction low on Feb 9.

The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Nov 30 2018 

The technical indicators are turning bullish. MACD and the Slow Stochastic both has up signals in place.

The index is overbought so a dip should be expected and could push the index back below the 21 day moving average, however it should be temporary.

For Friday the S&P should drift sideways with a slight bias to the upside ahead of the G20 summit.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 25 2024 – Weakness and Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw the rally stall. With the rally stalling investors took profits which weighed on stocks. The close saw the SPX up just 1 point at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024 discuss the second bounce on Tuesday and the outlook for the remainder of the week. There are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 24 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw the rally continue for a second day with rising up volume, wider market breadth and a higher gain. All of this is bullish. Much ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 23 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 23 2024 discuss the bounce on Monday. There are trade ideas on a wide number of stocks including Nucor ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 23 2024 – Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw the long awaited bounce from the recent selling and market breadth was bullish. The SPX rose 43 points recovering all of Friday's loss to ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 22 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 22 2024 discuss the outlook for the start of the fourth week of April. There are also comments on ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 22 2024 – No Change – Deeply Oversold Bounce Possible

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw stocks open flat and try to climb within the first 15 minutes. When that failed the selling continued. The early afternoon saw a rally ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 19 2024 discuss the outlook for for a potential bounce that ends the day with the indexes positive. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 19 2024 – Deeply Oversold – Bounce Likely – Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw another morning bounce attempt but no follow through. However the SPX did not break below 5000 and managed to close at 5011 although minutes ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 18 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 18 2024 discuss the outlook for Thursday and a possible bounce or a move lower. There are trade ideas ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 18 2024 – Deeply Oversold – Bounce Attempt Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw a bounce attempt at the open which managed to reach 5078 before selling once again pushed stocks lower. By 12:45 stocks looks almost ready ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 17 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 17 2024 discuss the outlook for a potential bounce on Wednesday. There are trade ideas outlined in Las Vegas ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 17 2024 – Another Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday found stocks stuck in a fairly tight trading range as investors remain worried about a potential Israeli retaliatory strike against Iran and what might be ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 16 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 16 2024 discuss the outlook for stocks for Tuesday and the chance of a bounce. There are trade ideas ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 16 2024 – Deeply Oversold

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday started the day as expected with a massive rally at the open and a push higher especially when retail sales came in stronger than expected. ....... Read More