Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 3 2023 – All About The October Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Thursday Treasury yields continued to show weakness and that assisted stock to continue their advance.  The SPX advanced 79.92 points for a 1.89% rise. This is the biggest one day gain since Jan 21 when the index rose 81 points. For the week, the SPX is up 200 points and back above 4300 at 4317.

The NASDAQ rose 232 points for a weekly gain of 651 points. The index ended the day at 13,294.

Volumes were high on both indexes with the S&P seeing 4.7 billion shares traded. 89% of trades were to the upside and 85% of all stocks were rising.

On the NASDAQ 5 billion shares traded with 79% of al volume to the upside and 70% of all stocks rising.

It has been an incredible rally. Thursday after hours Apple released disappointing earnings but the chance that the stock will plunge is next to nil. Instead some light weakness could be expected but anything deeper will find ready buyers.

With the October non-farm payroll numbers due out on Friday at 8:30, let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Nov 2 2023 to see what to expect for Fri Nov 3 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Nov 2 2023

The index closed above the 200 and 21 day moving averages and just below the 100 day. This is bullish but also signals overbought and some choppiness and possible dips on Friday should be expected.

The closing candlestick ended the day above 4300 which is bullish but the long candlestick is typically seen before a weaker day.

The 21 day moving average bounced off the 200 day and is moving back above it on Thursday.

The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all falling which is bearish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is moving sideways which is neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which often indicates another move may be coming soon. That move could be higher next week.

The S&P chart is bearish but indicates the bounce could stall a bit Friday and then try to resume next week.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Nov 2 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 3 2023 

On Friday the October non-farm payroll numbers are due out at 8:30. If numbers are around 170,000 with a 3.8% unemployment rate the index will end the day positive even with Apple earnings which disappointed.

On Friday we could see choppy trading and dips back below 4300 are likely but they will find ready buyers even with the upcoming weekend. Investor enthusiasm for the rally remains quite strong and should have enough strength to close positive on Friday and next week move to 4400. The easy part of the rally higher is over. The index will now face more sellers next week and any hint that Treasury yields are going to rise, will send stocks lower.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

On Friday investors get to hear the October non-farm payroll numbers.

Monday:

There are no economic reports

Tuesday:

8:15 ADP unemployment report

9:45 S&P manufacturing

9:45 Chicago Business Barometer is expected at 45.3 up from 44.1

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected at 100.0 versus 103.0

Wednesday:

1:00 Automatic Data Processing Stock (ADP)

9:45 S&P manufacturing i index.

10:00 Job openings

10:00 ISM manufacturing

10:00 Job opening

10:00 ISM manufacturing

10:00 Construction spending

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to come in at 214,000. They came in at 217,000.

8:30 Productivity is estimated to rise to 4.3% from 3.5%. It came in at 4.7%.

8:30 Unit-labor costs are expected to dip to 0.7% from 2.2%. It fell to -0.8% which helped the rally on Thursday.

10:00 Factory orders are expected to rise to 2.5% from 1.2%. They rose 2.8%.

Friday:

8:30 October non-farm payroll numbers are expected to be around 170,000 with an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.8%.

9:45 services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 50.9

10:00 ISM services are expected to be 53%