Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 29 2024 – Weakness – Possible Lower Day But Still Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Wednesday saw investors take further profits especially in the semiconductor sector. The SPX closed down 23 points to 5998 but on thin trading volume of 3.4 billion shares as many investors have already left for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

The NASDAQ slipped 115 points to close at 19,060 but 66% of all volume was still being traded to the upside. As well 5.7 billion shares traded hands on Wednesday which is above average for the day before Thanksgiving Holiday.

On Tuesday the SPX had made a new closing high so a drop back on the following day was not unusual.

Let review the closing technical signals from Wed Nov 27 2024 to see what to expect for Fri Nov 29 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Nov 27 2024

The index pushed slipped below 6000 by the close but is well above the 21 day moving average. The slip lower on Wednesday did not break any uptrend.

The closing candlestick has a small shadow which could signal some further profit-taking on Friday.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5908. This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5832. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5692 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5446 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average and turning up which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Thursday but the closing candlestick does advise some selling is likely again on Friday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Nov 27 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 29 2024 

For Friday the technical indicators have lost some strength but overall they have actually moved out of being overbought. Although there is a good chance the SPX will close lower on Friday, the outlook is still very bullish heading into December. Historically the final day of November has been positive 72% of the time since my records from 1974.

On Wednesday economic reports came in primarily as estimated which showed no strong rise in inflation which means the Fed should be able to cut interest rates again in December. Bonds sold lower after the PCE reports.

There will definitely be some dips today but any negative close is expected to be slight. Any positive close is also expected o be small. Trading volume will be low as it is a half day of trading due to the Thanksgiving holiday. I am not expected a great deal of action today. The outlook overall for the start of December is for a higher week.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No economic reports

Tuesday:

9:00 Case-Shiller home price index came in lower than estimated at 4.6%

10:00 Consumer confidence rose to 111.7 from 108.7

10:00 New Home salesfell sharply to 610,000 from 738,000 prior.

2:00 FOMC November meeting minutes provided nothing new

Wednesday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims fell to 213,000

8:30 Durable goods orders fell 0.2%

8:30 Trade balance rose dramatically to $88.1 billion from -$108.74 billion prior

8:30 Advanced retail inventories fell to just 0.1% from 0.6% prior.

8:30 GDP came in unchanged at 2.8%

10:00 Personal income is estimated was higher at 0.6% from 0.3%

10:00 Personal spending came in as estimated at 0.4%

10:00 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index was unchanged at 0.2%

10:00 PCE year-over-year came in as estimated at 2.3%

10:00 Core PCE index came in as estimated at 0.3%

10:00 Core PCE year-over-year came in as estimated at 2.8%

10:00 Pending home sale fell to 2.0% from 7.4%

Thursday:

Thanksgiving holiday – no reports

Friday:

No reports scheduled – half day of trading