Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 15 2024 – Choppy With Bias Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary:

For Thursday I had expected the index to dip a bit deeper than previous but to recover and close flat to higher. Instead the index slipped lower especially with comments from Fed Chair Powell that were taken as hawkish when it came to further rate reductions. Many analysts now expect a quarter point rate cut in December but then no further rate cuts until possibly May 2025.

By the end of the day the SPX was down 36 points point to close at 5950, right at support. The Nasdaq closed down 123 points to 19,107 and ready to clip below 19,000 on Friday. Volume on the SPX was average but on the NASDAQ it was 8.9 billion shares traded which is higher than usual for trading outside of triple witching.

With investors concerned about the outlook and the post-election rally now looking like it may be ending, let’s review the technical signals from Thu Nov 14 2024 to see what they predict for Fri Nov 15 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Nov 14 2024

The index traded below the Upper Bollinger Band and closed at the lows of the day. This is bearish for Friday.

The closing candlestick has no shadows which often advises a further down day is expected.

The 21 day moving average rose and is at 5859 This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5767. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5641 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5390 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish as the Bollinger Bands widen which signals a higher move is still ahead for the index.

The S&P chart is more bearish for Friday with few signs of a positive close on Friday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Nov 14 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 15 2024 

For Friday investors may try to start the day with a bounce but don’t expect it to last. The technical indicators are all losing strength to the upside and a number of them are falling.

The Core Producer Price Index year-over-year was a lot higher than anticipated, coming in at 3.5%. As explained yesterday in the stock market outlook, a rising PPI is tough on stocks. Any sign that inflation could be returning will send stocks lower. On Friday here are a number of important economic reports but perhaps the most important is retail sales. If they come in as expected, that will be good for stocks but rising retail sales can often be seen as inflationary. That will be poor for stocks.

For the end of the week, the day looks choppy with a lower close as investors try to digest all the signals, Friday’s economic reports and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

Veterans Day. Bond market is closed.

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index rose higher than expected to 93.7 from 91.5

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index was unchanged at 0.2%

8:30 CPI year-over-year came in as expected at 2.6%

8:30 Core CPI was unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year came in as expected at 3.3%

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were slightly less at 217,000

8:30 Producer Price Index came in as expected at 0.2%

8:30 Producer Price Index year-over-year rose to 2.4%

8:30 Core PPI rose to 0.3% from 0.1% prior

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year rose to 3.5% from 3.3% which was disappointing

Friday:

Import price index is estimated to rise to -0.1% from -0.4%

8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is expected to rise to 0.0% from -11.9%

8:30 Retail sales are expect to slip to 0.3% from 0.4%

9:15 Industrial production is expect to remain unchanged at -0.3%

9:15 Capacity utilization is estimated at 77.2% down slightly from 77.5% prior

10:00 Business inventories are estimated at 0.2% down from 0.3% prior