Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 1 2024 – All About The October Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thu Oct 31 2024 stocks fell on the back of disappointing quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta in particular and ahead of the non-farm payroll numbers for October.

The SPX tumbled 108 points to end the day at 5705. 68% of all stocks were falling on Thursday. For the month of October, the SPX lost 57 points.

The NASDAQ tumbled 513 points to close at 18095. It was the biggest single day decline since Sep 3 when the index lost 577 points. 178 stocks made new 52 week lows and 73% of all stocks on the NASDAQ were declining on Thursday.  For the month of October, the NASDAQ lost just 94 points.

Apple after hours reported excellent earnings as did Amazon.com. Apple stock fell after hours while Amazon.com rallied.

To start the day on Friday, we get the October non-farm payroll numbers. These will control the market direction to start the day. As the morning wears on, the technical indicators will have more impact.

Let’s review the technical indicators from Thu Oct 31 2024 to see what the technical indicators are advising for investors for Friday, the start of November.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Oct 31 2024

The index closed at the Lower Bollinger Band at the 50 day moving average. This is bearish but also points to a probable bounce.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Friday but is oversold and a bounce is expected.

The 21 day moving average is unchanged at 5800. This is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is slightly higher at 5698 This is bearish as the uptrend is slowing.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5581 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5345 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned sideways which is bearish as the index slipped to the 50 day moving average.

The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Friday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Oct 31 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Nov 1 2024 

Friday morning will be all about the October jobs report. Analysts estimate just 110,000 jobs were created in October. That would keep the Fed on target for a rate cut in November. A higher number could tumble stocks as investors worry the Fed may delay another rate cut. A much lower number would worry investors that a recession is on the horizon and that could send stocks lower.

After the jobs numbers are known we should see a bounce attempt if the jobs numbers meet estimates. There are a number of technical indicators that are pointing to an oversold bounce as being likely. If there is no bounce on Friday, expect a bounce to start next week.

On Friday a bounce will not be enough to recover the loss from Thursday.

Apple Stock, Amazon.com Stock and Intel Stock may climb on Friday and that will help, especially for a bounce attempt.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No economic reports

Tuesday:

9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index fell to 5.2%

10:00 Consumer confidence rose to 108.7, well beyond estimates

10:00 Job openings came in lower than expected at 7.44 million

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment was estimated to fall to 113,000 but came in at a surprising 233,000

8:30 GDP was expected to rise to 3.1% but fell to 2.8%

10:00 Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.7% but jumped 7.4%

Thursday:

8:30 Personal income is expected to rise slightly 0.3%

8:30 Personal spending is expected to rise 0.4% from 0.2%

8:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is estimated at 0.2%

8:30 PCE year-over-year is estimated lower at 2.1%

8:30 Core PCE Index is estimated to rise slightly to 0.3%

8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is estimated to slip to 2.6% from 2.7%

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expect to rise to 230,000

9:45 Chicago PMI is estimated at 46.8% from 46.6%