Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thursday news of a trade deal with the UK was all it took to send stocks higher. Intraday a lot of enthusiasm was lost and the indexes pulled back from what was a massive rally. Despite this the day ended higher.
The S&P closed up 32 points to end the day at 5663. Volume was good at 5.7 billion shares traded with 65% of all stocks advancing.
The NASDAQ rose 189 points to close at 17,928 on excellent volume of 8.8 billion shares traded. 66% of all stocks on the NASDAQ were rising.
The biggest concern for Friday was the afternoon loss of much of the day’s rally. The could setup the indexes for weakness on Friday.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Thu May 8 2025 to see what we should expect for Fri May 9 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu May 8 2025
The index closed above the 50 day, 21 day andback above the 200 day moving average. Intraday the index had moved above the 100 day but gave that back in the afternoon. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish but with a long shadow which signals a dip is likely today.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5465. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5555 which is bearish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15. which issued a 4th down signal on the SPX. The 50 day on Friday May 2 fell below the 200 day for a 5th down signal.
The 100 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5674 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5638 which is bullish.
The rally on Thursday helped to push some of the moving averages higher which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish and signals a probable Bollinger Bands Squeeze next week.
For Fri May 9 2025 the SPX chart is still more bearish than bullish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu May 8 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling but positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Thu May 8 2025 the up signal lost some strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal at the close.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising sharply indicating a larger move is likely today, either up or down. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5400 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5300 is support |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 9 2025
For Friday May 9, the technical indicators are mixed but are still biased to a higher close. Dips though look very likely and they could be deeper than expected. The loss of the bulk of Thursday’s rally signals the market is presently overbought. Despite this, watch for a choppy day on Friday but expect the S&P to close above the 200 day moving average once again.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final services PMI dipped to 50.8 which was lower than estimated
10:00 ISM services rose to 51.6% which was higher than estimated and the prior reading
Tuesday:
8:30 Trade Deficit was lower than estimated, coming in at -$140.5 billion
Wednesday
2:00 FOMC meeting
2:30 Fed Chair Powell news conference – Powell expressed concerns about higher inflation and higher unemployment
3:00 Consumer credit came in as estimated at $9.0 billion.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in at 228,000 versus 241,000 prior.
8:30 USA productivity fell more than expected to -0.8% from 1.7%
10:00 Wholesale inventories fell less than estimated, to 0.4% from 0.5%
Friday:
No reports but various Fed officials speak throughout the day and early evening at a variety of functions